Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.
Earlier this week, we looked at the five films I think are all but guaranteed to be nominated for Best Picture at this time. Today, let’s go through the rest of the calendar year
chronologically, starting with a movie that’s already been released, and see what else could contended for the Academy Award for Best Picture of 2013.
 |
Michael B. Jordan as Oscar Grant in "Fruitvale Station" |
FRUITVALE
STATION, the emotionally charged true story about Oscar Grant’s 2009 murder
by San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit police.
The film was the winner of both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience
Award at the Sundance Film Festival. Last year’s Grand Jury Prize winner was
nominated for Best Picture (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”). The 2010 Grand Jury
Prize winner was nominated for Best Picture (“Winter’s Bone”). The 2009 winner
was also nominated (“Precious”). Why not “Fruitvale Station”?
 |
Chris Hemsworth as James Hunt in Ron Howard's "Rush" |
Ron Howard's Formula One drama
RUSH opens this Friday everywhere. Howard is usually very reliable when he tackles dramatic subject matter such as this. No one has really done a Formula One movie quite like this either. My only reservation on "Rush" is that they've been sitting on it for almost a year. Best Picture contenders are also not normally released in September. This could be a good film, but might not carry much weight into the nomination season. We'll find out more on Friday.
 |
Tom Hanks as Richard Phillips in "Captain Phillips" |
Opening on October 11 will be the new thriller from Paul
Greengrass,
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
starring Tom Hanks. This is a true story of Richard Phillips, captain of the MV
Maersk Alabama which was hijacked by Somalian pirates in 2009. Three things the Academy voters seem to like: true story, Tom
Hanks and Paul Greengrass (a previous Oscar nominee for another harrowing true
story “United 93”). I have seen this film, but I can't say anything about it right now. All I'll say is that this is a very safe bet to secure a nomination for Best Picture.
 |
Benedict Cumberbath and Daniel Brühl star in the
WikiLeaks biopic "The Fifth Estate" |
October 18 not only brings us “12 Years a Slave” but also
THE FIFTH ESTATE, a biopic on WikiLeaks
founder Julian Assange. Benedict Cumberbatch portrays Assange which could earn
him a nomination for Best Actor. The film received a pretty so-so reception when it premiered last month. The audience's response will be key. It might strike a chord with the public since it's socially relevant with recent accusations regarding the NSA's so-called domestic spy program. I don’t know if this one will go the distance
and secure a nomination, but you never know. It could be a dark horse.
 |
Robert Redford fights for survival in "All is Lost" |
Also on October 18 is
ALL IS LOST from director J.C. Chandor (Oscar nominated writer-director of "Margin Call") and starring Robert Redford. Redford plays a man stranded at sea by himself after his sailboat is destroyed by a storm. Redford is the only person in this film; there are no other costars. The film premiered to rave reviews at Cannes earlier this year. This might turn out to be one of those films where the critics appreciate the daring artistic choices by the director and the fearless performance by Redford, but the paying public might be turned off by a film with one man and very little dialogue. I think a nomination for Redford is probably a certainty, but a Best Picture nomination might be a stretch. If the public eats it up (like, say, "Cast Away" back in 2000) then it might have a shot of being the last film nominated.
 |
Adèle Exarchopoulos and Léa Seydoux in the French film
"Blue is the Warmest Color" |
Cannes Film Festival’s Palme d’Or winning film
BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR opens on
October 25. This is also a bit of a dark horse in my book right now, mostly due
to its explicit subject matter and the fact that its a foreign language film. The three-hour film chronicles the love story between two young women. The last two Palme d’Or winning films (2011’s
“The Tree of Life” and 2012’s “Amour”) were both nominated for Best Picture.
Why not 2013’s winner? That's not a great barometer for predicting what will be nominated for Best Picture; before those two films, the last film to win the Palme d'Or and score a Best Picture nomination was "The Pianist" in 2002. Again, this is probably a dark horse, but worth mentioning.
 |
Matthew McConaughy looking very frail as an AIDS
patient in "Dallas Buyers Club" |
November 1 is the limited opening for
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB starring Matthew McConaughy as an AIDS patient
smuggling unapproved drugs from Mexico to sell to other AIDS patients. The film also stars Jennifer Garner and Jared Leto. This is a true story which could help its chances, since Academy votes like true stories. Despite that fact, this is probably another dark horse. McConaughy is almost certain to earn an acting nomination. We’ll discuss the acting awards on a later day.
 |
Sophie Nélisse, Emily Watson and Geoffrey Rush in
"The Book Thief" opening November 15. |
THE BOOK THIEF
opens November 15 and stars Geoffrey Rush and Emily Watson (a former Oscar
winner and nominee, respectively). The film is based on the popular bestselling
novel about a young girl sent to live with a family in World War II Germany. I
don’t think this has been screened for anyone yet, but it’s worth mentioning
simply for those involved and the source material. We'll keep an eye on this one. Oscar voters do love World War
II movies. Any World War II drama that can make a good connection with the audience usually seems to be considered for Best Picture.
 |
Bruce Dern and Will Forte play father and son in
Alexander Payne's latest "Nebraska" |
November 15 also sees the opening of
NEBRASKA from Oscar winning
writer-director Alexander Payne. The film stars Bruce Dern as an elderly man going on a road trip with his son (Will Forte) from Montana to Nebraska to claim what he thinks is a winning sweepstakes prize. The role won Dern the Best Actor award at Cannes earlier this year. Other winners of this
award in recent years include Jean Dujardin for “The Artist” and Christoph
Waltz for “Inglourious Basterds”, both of whom went on to win Oscars for the
same roles. Both films were also nominated for Best Picture, with “The Artist”
winning. Same thing for “Nebraska”? The Academy does love Alexander Payne. His previous films“Sideways” and “The Descendants” were both Best Picture nominees.
 |
Leonardo DiCaprio as Jordon Belfort in "The Wolf
of Wall Street" |
You can’t count out Martin Scorsese either. His latest film,
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET,
is
currently scheduled for November 15 but that doesn't seem likely anymore as of today. It’s a true story based on Jordan Belfort’s bestselling memoirs.
Leonardo DiCaprio is playing Belfort, a maniacal young Wall Street executive who ultimately served time in federal prison for stock market manipulation and running a boiler room. It costars Matthew McConaughy, Jonah Hill, Jean Dujardin, Margot Robbie, Jon Favreau, Kyle Chadler, Rob Reiner and Jon Bernthal. The trailer looks outstanding. Oscar
voters do love Scorsese. Most of his films end up being nominated for Best
Picture these days. He had a run going for awhile where he had several films nominated for Best Picture, but none ever won. He finally won the top prize (and Best Director too) in 2006 for "The Departed". Since then he's still been a fixture at the Academy Awards; however the overcrowding this year could leave him on the outside looking in. The latest news on this today is that Scorsese's cut of the film was 180 minutes long and Paramount wants him to cut it. They're going to try and have it ready for Christmas Day. If not, it'll be pushed to next year where it will instantly top my Oscar Watch List for 2014.
 |
Idris Elba working on his Oscar nomination as Nelson
Mandela in "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom" |
MANDELA: LONG WALK TO
FREEDOM opens November 29. Oscar voters love their true stories, as I’ve
said numerous times already. This one is the true story about Nelson Mendela’s time during the South African
apartheid. Idris Elba looks great in the film so a Best Actor nomination could be on tap for him. I do get the feeling that this film could become a little too long winded or maybe even rely too heavily on phony emotions to draw you in. If that's the case, the film could become a boring mess. If it makes a genuine connection, however, it could line up for many awards. If it bores, one nod for Elba, and that'll be it. I'm going to put my bets on the latter for now.
 |
Bradley Cooper and Christian Bale in "American Hustle" |
David O. Russell, who directed last year’s Best Picture
nominee “Silver Linings Playbook”, returns this year on December 13 with
AMERICAN HUSTLE. The film is about the
1970s FBI Abscam operation and stars some actors Russell has worked with
before: Oscar winner Christian Bale, Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper, Oscar
nominee Amy Adams, Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence and Oscar winner Robert De
Niro. Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner also joins the Russell family with this one,
as does comedian Louis C.K. Based on the trailer and subject matter I think this is a pretty safe bet.
 |
Tom Hanks as Walt Disney in "Saving Mr. Banks" |
Another Tom Hanks film opens on December 13,
SAVING MR. BANKS. It stars Emma Thompson as P.L. Travers, author of
Mary Poppins, and tells the story of how Walt Disney (Hanks) tried to get her book made into a movie. We all know the film became a classic, but "Saving Mr. Banks" will show how the book was almost never made into a movie. Colin Farrell, Paul Giamatti, Ruth Wilson, Rachel Griffiths, Bradley Whitford, Jason Schwartzman, B.J. Novak and Kathy Bates costar. How the Academy could ignore a biopic featuring Tom
Hanks as Walt Disney is beyond me. You can probably take this one to the bank,
as long as its half way decent.
 |
George Clooney and Matt Damon work to save German
historical artifacts from Nazis in "The Monuments Men" |
THE MONUMENTS MEN,
a new film from director George Clooney, opens December 18. It’s a historical
biopic set during World War II about a group of Americans who go into Nazi
Germany in order to retrieve works of art before the Nazi’s destroy them.
George Clooney acting and directing, Oscar winning producer Grant Heslov
producing, World War II. Need I say more? The film also costars other big names too: Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, Bill Murray, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin and Bob Balaban. Bet on this one too, as long as its
good. My only reservation is that the trailer does make the movie seem like there will be several goofy and light hearted moments. We'll have to see how that translates throughout the entire picture. If it comes off more funny rather than series, its chances will greatly diminish.
 |
Joaquin Phoenix longs for love in "Her" |
Spike Jonze returns after several years of not
directing with
HER. Starring Joaquin
Phoenix and Amy Adams, the film looks a little odd but still looks quite good.
Phoenix’s character develops a relationship with his computer’s new smart
operating system (voiced by Scarlett Johansson). This one could be a long shot
due to its quirky plot. If there’s enough power and emotion behind it,
something Jonze is capable of doing, then it could be one of the films singled
out in January.
 |
Steve Carrel and Channing Tatum in "Foxcatcher" |
December 20 brings us the release of Bennett Miller’s latest
film
FOXCATCHER starring Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo. In this true story, Tatum and Ruffalo star as Olympic
wrestling brothers Mark and Dave Schultz and their relationship with eccentric
millionaire, and paranoid schizophrenic, John du Pont (Steve Carell). This is
Miller’s third film. His first two (“Capote” and “Moneyball”) were both
nominated for Best Picture. Judging by the subject matter, I think Miller has a decent shot of going three for three. Again, it is a crowded field this year, so it could be left out in the cold.
 |
Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin in "Labor Day" |
Christmas Day will bring us
LABOR DAY, the latest film from Oscar
nominated filmmaker Jason Reitman. This one stars Josh Brolin and Kate Winslet and is based on a novel of
the same name by Joyce Maynard. Reitman has been up for Best Picture twice
(“Juno” and “Up in the Air”). He’s an Academy favorite, which means this is one
we should watch. It did not receive the kind of reception I thought it would
when it screened at Toronto. Most critics seemed to like it, but were
not blown away by it.
 |
Ben Stiller ready for adventure in "The Secret Life of
Walter Mitty" |
Finally, that brings us to another Christmas Day release.
This one comes from an unlikely source: Ben Stiller.
THE SECRET LIFE OF WALTER MITTY, a remake of the 1947 Danny Kaye film, has been in
development for a very long time. At one point, I think Steven Spielberg
intended this to be his follow up to “Schindler’s List”. That didn’t happen,
and now Stiller has made it into a movie that looks very special. Based on the
trailers, I’d say it looks like a cross between “Forrest Gump” and “Eternal
Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”. If the movie is anywhere near as good as the
trailer, this one could very well contend.
So that’s what the landscape looks like for the Best Picture
Oscar race. That’s a lot of potential nominees, so where does that leave us for
predictions? Remember, 1-5 are the guaranteed picks as of today, and 6-10 are
the confidence picks (if there are six nominees, 1-6 will be the nominated
films. If there are seven nominees, then 1-7 will be nominated and so on). So
these are the picks as of today and there will be plenty of time for that to
change.
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. August: Osage County
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Gravity
5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
6. Captain Phillips
7. American Hustle
8. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
9. The Monuments Men
10. Saving Mr. Banks
It’s hard to leave movies off this list. The next
several months will help us drop down the list of potentials. It will still be
a very crowded field, but this is what makes the Oscars so much fun. Sure,
you’re favorite movie might not be nominated, but it’s so much fun to try and
figure out which films will be recognized on March 2, 2014.
Stay tuned for Volume 2 sometime next week. We’ll look at
the potentials for the leading role acting categories.