Oscarology: Vol 1, pt. 1 - Best Picture Nominees

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

For this first volume, we will focus on the top category: Best Picture of the Year.

A few years ago, the Academy amended their rules to allow a minimum of five films to be nominated for Best Picture, but no more than 10. Nobody will know exactly how many films will be nominated until the announcement in January. Nine films have been nominated in each of the past two years since the rule amendment. The rules provide that Academy members vote for their five favorite pictures from the year. The movies with the highest total will be nominated, provided that the film receives 5% of first place rankings (meaning each movie nominated for Best Picture was ranked first on at least 5% of the ballots cast).

Therefore, there’s no way to tell exactly which films are going to be nominated. So what I’ll do between now and the day the nominations are released is to provide a list of 10 films that could be nominated. Films ranked 1-5 will be the guaranteed nominees. Films 6-10 will be ranked by confidence (if there are 6 nominees, it’ll be films 1-6, if there are seven then it’ll be films 1-7 and so on).

So which films are going to be nominated? This is a much more crowded season as opposed to last year. I was surprised to see nine nominated films even made the nomination list last year simply because the quality of films was lower than in previous years. This year, it would not surprise me to see all 10 slots filled. It also would not surprise me to only see five of six films nominated due to the 5% rule. Too many films to be spread out across too many Academy voters.

Let’s have a look at some of the films that will no doubt be considered for not only a nomination, but the win as well. Please remember, I haven’t seen any of these films yet. This is all based on pure speculation, and my knowledge of how these awards work. Please note my PhD in Oscarology. In part one today, we'll look at the five films the I believe, as of right now, will be guaranteed a nomination for Best Picture.

Chiwetel Ejiofor in the Best Picture frontrunner "12 Years
a Slave" opening October 18

Until further notice, the film I believe will win the Best Picture Oscar is 12 YEARS A SLAVE. This film was the recipient of the Toronto International Film Festival’s only award, the People’s Choice Award. Four of the last five winners of this award went on to score a Best Picture nomination and two of those films (“Slumdog Millionaire” and “The King’s Speech”) won the award.

“12 Years a Slave,” from acclaimed British filmmaker Steve McQueen, is based on an autobiography by Solomon Northup, a free black man from New York in antebellum America who was kidnapped and sold into slavery for 12 years. Chiwetel Ejiofor plays Northup. Michael Fassbender, Benedict Cumberbatch, Brad Pitt and Paul Dano also star. The film was said to have left the Toronto audience in a stunned silence before erupting into a rare standing ovation. Some critics walked out, unable to watch because of the intensity. One critic said this is the “Schindler’s List” of slavery films. That’s saying something. I believe at this moment, “12 Years to Slave” will be the film to beat. It begins its limited run on October 18.

Oscar winners Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts star in
"August: Osage County" opening Christmas Day

Another film that received a wonderful reception at Toronto comes from The Weinstein Company, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY. From director John Wells (“The Company Men”), the film is based on a play by Tracy Letts who also wrote the screenplay. A family crisis brings family members back together to the Oklahoma home where they were raised. The film is loaded with star power including Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Benedict Cumberbatch (again), Ewan McGregor, Juliette Lewis, Abigail Breslin, Dermot Mulroney, Sam Shepard, Chris Cooper and Margo Martindale. It also received a massive ovation from Toronto and could absolutely be considered a contender to win. I think a nomination is a given at this point. It opens for a limited run on Christmas Day before expanding (probably after it receives numerous Oscar nominations).

Oscar Isaac stars in the Coen Brothers' "Inside Llewyn
Davis" coming to theaters December 6

Don't count out the Coen Brothers either. Their latest is INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS. This one premiered at Cannes earlier this year to rave reviews. At that time, many considered it the very early front-runner for Best Picture. It’s since fallen from that distinction, but only because Cannes was back in May. The film follows an aspiring folk singer-songwriter in New York City’s Greenwich Village during the 1960s. It stars Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, John Goodman, Garrent Hedlund, F. Murray Abraham and Justin Timberlake. The soundtrack is being produced by T Bone Burnett (who produced the Grammy winning soundtrack for the Coen’s “O Brother, Where Art Thou?”) and by Mumford and Sons frontman Marcus Mumford, so you know the music will be good. I think this will reclaim some kind of frontrunner status when it finally comes out in theaters. It will open with a limited run on December 6 before expanding on December 20.

Terror above the surface of the earth in "Gravity"

One film we’ll get to see very soon is the space thriller GRAVITY from director Alfonso Cuarón. The film stars previous Oscar winners Sandra Bullock and George Clooney as astronauts stranded in space after an accident destroys their space shuttle. Most of you have probably seen the ads for this one so you are all probably well aware of how good this looks. The Academy does not typically swoon for science fiction films such as this, but the early reviews have been nothing short of spectacular. While I think this will be a guaranteed nominee, I don’t know if the Academy will end up awarding it with their top prize. Then again, it’s only September and a lot can change. “Gravity” will open on October 4 everywhere, including IMAX 3D screens.

Robin Williams and Forest Whitaker in "Lee Daniels'
The Butler" now playing in theaters

Another guaranteed nominee will be LEE DANIELS’ THE BUTLER. This has already been released for some time and many of you have probably already seen it. Admittedly, I have not had a chance to see this one yet. The fact that this one has remained a decent box office draw helps its chances of a nomination. Just because it’s a successful box office draw does not mean it's going to be an Oscar nominee (if that were the case, “Iron Man 3”, “Despicable Me 2” and “Fast & Furious 6” would be nominated, and that is not going to happen). Its chances are helped by the fact that it's been well reviewed and well received in the box office.

I think these five films have the best chance of securing nominations, but what other films could contend? In part two, we'll examine the other films this year that could secure any of the remaining five slots. Check back Wednesday, September 25 for the second part of Best Picture Oscarology.