Oscarology: Vol. 2, pt. 1 - Best Actor nominees

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

Much like the best picture nominees this year, the leading role acting categories are also very crowded. There will be many snubs and people will wonder why that happened. I hope the shed some light on that with this new volume of Oscarology. Listed in this volume will be ten actors and ten actresses who I believe have the best chances of securing an Oscar nomination this year. I’ve ranked them one through 10 on confidence. One through five are the people who I believe will be the nominees while six through 10 have the next best chance. Let’s first look at Best Actor in a Leading Role.

Best Actor frontrunner Chiwetel Ejifor as Solomon Northup
in 12 YEARS A SLAVE

1. Chiwetel Ejifor – 12 Years a Slave
As it is with my current pick for Best Picture, Chiwetel Ejifor will remain my pick as the person to beat for Best Actor in a Leading Role for his role in “12 Years a Slave” until further notice. Again, I have not seen this film; it just opened in limited release so it’ll be a while before the majority of moviegoers have a chance to see it. Based only on the buzz being generated from the film’s screening at the Toronto International Film Festival and the subject matter of the film, Ejifor seems to be the man who will walk away with the Oscar in March. This isn’t much of a surprise to anyone familiar with Ejifor’s performances. I remember his roles in “Children of Men” and “American Gangster”. I also remember one of his early leading role in Stephen Frears’ “Dirty Pretty Things” in which he delivered a very powerful performance. The only surprise should be that it took Ejifor to find a role that would earn him this kind of well deserved recognition.

Matthew McConaughey as Ron Woodroof in DALLAS
BUYERS CLUB

2. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

The Academy has a tendency to be one of the most predictable organizations when it comes to performances they like. If you’re an actor who really wants to win an Oscar, there are three things you need to look for when selecting roles: the character must be real, the character must be seen as out-of-the-ordinary (through some kind of disability, illness or alternative lifestyle - which I hope is a very P.C. expression) and finally you must go through some kind of overwhelming physical transformation (either though literally changing one's physical appearance or utilizing makeup effects). Find these three things, play the roll well and you will almost certainly earn a nomination. Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club” hits all these items. He plays Ron Woodroof, a real person, who was infected with HIV in the mid-1980s. He smuggled AIDS drugs into the US from Mexico that weren’t approved by the FDA and sold them to other AIDS patients. McConaughey also went through a dramatic physical transformation, trading in his traditional good looks for a gaunt and sickly appearance, shedding 38 pounds for the role. McConaughey proved earlier this year with “Mud” that he can do more than flash his million dollar smile and take his shirt off in every role; he absolutely has the talent to pull a role like this off. He will at least earn a nomination this year, and could very well take the award home.

3. Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Cannes' Best Actor winner Bruce Dern in NEBRASKA

Bruce Dern has been around for many years in film and television. He’s been nominated before, for a Best Supporting Actor Oscar in the 1978 film “Coming Home”. He’s always reliable in his roles, but his role as an aging man in “Nebraska” might be his best chance to win the award. He’s already won one award for this role, Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival. Director Alexander Payne is always good for at least one acting nomination from his films too. George Clooney earned one for “The Descendants”, Thomas Hayden Church and Virginia Madsen were up in “Sidways”, and Jack Nicholson and Kathy Bates were nominated for “About Schmidt”. Payne knows how to get great performances out of his actors, and he’s an Academy favorite. Sometimes, the director plays an important part in who earns a nod. Also, seasoned veterans who have never won also get a little bit of a sympathy vote too. I think all these factors all but guarantee a nomination for Dern.

4. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips

Tom Hanks as Richard Phillips in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

No actor is more loved amongst the Academy than Tom Hanks. When he appears in great films and puts on a decent performance, he scores Oscar nominations. I didn’t find his performance in “Saving Private Ryan” to be all that mesmerizing. Was he good? Absolutely he was. Was he Oscar worthy? Not in my opinion. He’s been nominated five times, winning two in consecutive years. I’m sure he’ll be up for many more nominations in his career. “Captain Phillips” is a great movie and his performance is one of the best he’s ever given. Since he’s Tom Hanks and he’s giving a great performance, that’s enough for me to assume that he’ll earn his sixth Best Actor nomination this year.

5. Robert Redford – All is Lost

Robert Redford going solo in ALL IS LOST

Robert Redford is an Oscar winning producer and director, but he’s never been nominated for an acting Oscar. Redford has done so much for the film industry and he might earn a sentimental vote from Academy members this year. Let’s also go back to Tom Hanks for a moment. His fifth nomination came from “Cast Away”, a film he largely did on his own. “All is Lost” is similar for Redford since he is the only actor in the film. Sandra Bullock will no doubt earn a nomination for “Gravity” for this same reason, but more on that later. I don’t think Redford will in an Oscar for “All is Lost” but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t nominated.

Michael B. Jordan as Oscar Grant in FRUITVALE STATION

6. Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station

Michael B. Jordan is not a name many people know. “Fruitvale Station” might not have been a movie many people saw. But those who did are very well aware of Jordan now. Jordan puts on a harrowing performance of a young man on his fateful last day of life. The role is tragic and his performance is captivating. I could easily see him walking away with a nomination, but I think he might barely miss the cut in such a crowded field this year.

7. Hugh Jackman – Prisoners

Hugh Jackman in the thrilling film PRISONERS

I was surprised by the ferocity that Hugh Jackman brought to the surprisingly well done “Prisoners”. As surprising as it sounds, Jackman has only been nominated one other time (last year for “Les Misérables”). He’s a well respected member of the Hollywood elite and has already hosted the Academy Awards before. Everyone loves him. Why wouldn’t they want to honor him for a role that’s such a departure for him? I think he’s passed over, but his performance in this film is spectacular. He should be nominated, but he’ll probably just miss the cut.

Forest Whitaker in LEE DANIELS' THE BUTLER

8. Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

With as much attention of “Lee Daniels’ The Butler” has received from the media and being such a huge box office draw, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it receive numerous “just because” nominations. I still have not seen this one, so my opinion of Forest Whitaker receiving a nomination is based purely on speculation. His character isn’t a real person, though he’s based on someone real. He’s one of the only consistent faces in an ensemble picture, which helps his chances. Having not seen the film, I can’t say much about his performance. I think “The Butler” will be one of the most nominated movies of the year, and it makes sense that the film’s star would be one of the nominees. The crowded field this year could make it difficult though.

Leonardo DiCaprio as Jordan Belfort in THE WOLF OF
WALL STREET

9. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Leonardo DiCaprio is becoming the butt of Oscar jokes much like his favorite director Martin Scorsese once was. Scorsese earned six Oscar nominations from 1981 to 2004 before finally winning one in 2006 for “The Departed”, which still seemed like a sympathy award. DiCaprio has only been nominated for three Oscars, which might come as a surprise to some. But he does seem to choose roles that might earn Oscar nominations. He wasn’t nominated for “J. Edgar”, but doesn’t that just seem like a role Oscar voters would love? In that case, they didn’t. “The Wolf of Wall Street” seems like a more modern role for DiCaprio, despite it taking place in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This doesn’t seem like a typical Oscar role for him, even though Jordan Belfort is a real person. I’m not certain that DiCaprio will see his fourth nomination for this film, but he’s worth keeping an eye on since it’s a Scorsese picture.

10. Christian Bale – American Hustle

Christian Bale (right) in AMERICAN HUSTLE

There are many different names that have occupied this final spot, but I’ve settled on Christian Bale for his role in “American Hustle”. Bale is already an Oscar winner for his supporting role in “The Fighter” which was directed by “American Hustle” filmmaker David O. Russell. Russell also directed Bradley Cooper to a nomination in last year’s “Silver Linings Playbook” and directed Jennifer Lawrence to a win in the same film. Russell knows how to get phenomenal performances out of his actors. “American Hustle” is a huge ensemble film and I could see multiple nominations for many different people. No one has seen this film yet, so that’s why I’m a little apprehensive to list anyone else as a possible nominee, or putting Christian Bale higher than this. We’ll see what the next couple months bring.

For the 2013 Best Actress contenders, check out PART TWO HERE