Oscarology: Vol. 2, pt. 2 - Best Actress nominees

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

Unlike Best Actor, the competition for Best Actress is not all that crowded. Of the major categories, it’s probably the least competitive. In the previous part of this volume (click here to read Vol. 2, pt. 1), I looked at 10 actors who all have a legitimate chance of earning a nomination. But with Best Actress, I'm hard pressed to find 10 actresses who could end up securing one of the five available slots. Where the competition will heat up is once the nominees are announced. Once we know that, I think that any one of the five could walk home with the Oscar statuette in early March. Let’s have a look at the possibilities.

1. Judi Dench - Philomena

Best Actress frontrunner Judi Dench with
Steve Coogan in PHILOMENA

Judi Dench has already won one Oscar for her very brief appearance in “Shakespeare in Love” in 1998. She continually wins over critics and audiences alike in nearly every role she plays. For her role in “Philomena”, Dench is already receiving critical acclaim from those who saw her performance at the Toronto International Film Festival. She plays a woman who gave up her son to adoption when she was younger (at that time and place, children born to women outside of marriage were forced to be given up). Years later, a journalist wishes to write about her story and the two embark on a journey to find her son. The trailer for the film makes this it look both humorous and deeply moving. There’s not a doubt in my mind that Dench will deliver an absolutely sensational performance. The story will probably resonate well with audiences who will be empathetic to her character’s situation. If Dench makes that connection, her second Oscar is a done deal.

2. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Oscar winner Cate Blanchett in Woody Allen's BLUE
JASMINE

What can’t Cate Blanchett do? She’s already won an Oscar for her portrayal of Academy favorite Katherine Hepburn. She was even nominated for a Supporting Actress Oscar for playing a man (a fictional version of Bob Dylan in “I’m Not Here”). For “Blue Jasmine”, Blanchett teams up with story and character master Woody Allen. Allen has directed countless actors and actresses to Oscar nominations and wins, including Diane Keaton for “Annie Hall” and Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Christina Barcalona”. He writes real characters and gets the best out of his stars. An Oscar nomination for acting is as much of a victory for the film’s director as it is the star. I see no reason for Allen to not see another one of his stars receive yet another Oscar nod this year.

3. Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Sandra Bullock utterly alone in GRAVITY

In my opinion, Sandra Bullock’s role in “The Blind Side” was worthy of recognition, but not a win – mostly due to her competition that year. This year is a different story. Bullock’s performance in “Gravity” is spellbinding. She is responsible for carrying the vast majority of this film all on her own, no easy task for anyone. This was a very challenging role for her. Not just because of the character but also because of the stylized manner in which it was filmed. This was such an unorthodox way of filming a movie, thanks to the visionary prowess of Alfonso Cuarón. “Gravity” will be one of this year’s most nominated films and I firmly believe one of those many nominations will belong to the movie’s leading lady.

4. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Meryl Streep going for her eighteenth nomination in
AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

There are no lines to read in between here: the Academy loves Meryl Streep. Audiences love her. Critics love her. There are very few movies on her resume that one could consider bad. Even if the movie isn’t good, you can pretty much guarantee she’s going to be solid. She’s been nominated 17 times for either the best actress or best supporting actress categories. Her first nomination came in 1979 for “Kramer vs. Kramer” and her most recent nomination (and win) came last year for her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady”. I know very little of her role in “August: Osage County” and I don’t really feel like I need to in order to make this prediction. Here’s what I know: Streep as the lead role in an adaptation of an award winning play surrounded by numerous stars which is being pushed by Harvey Weinstein as his studio’s top award contender. Trust me, she'll be nominated for the eighteenth time this year.

5. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

Emma Thompson as P.L. Travers in SAVING MR. BANKS

There’s been a lot of talk about Tom Hanks playing Walt Disney in “Saving Mr. Banks” later this year. People are forgetting that his role in this film is a supporting role. The movie isn’t about Disney, but it’s more about Mary Poppins author P.L. Travers, played in the film by Oscar winner Emma Thompson. One thing to understand about the Academy is that they love to pat themselves on the back (as if that wasn’t obvious from the always expensive and vast ABC broadcast). They love movies about movies, and especially about old time Hollywood people. “Saving Mr. Banks” is getting pretty decent reviews from those who have seen it. Even if the film is only a mild critical and commercial success (it shouldn't have any problems appealing to the public) then I think it’ll have a good shot at several nominations. If that’s the case, there’s no way Thompson is left out.

6. Amy Adams – American Hustle

Amy Adams in David O. Russell's AMERICAN HUSTLE

Amy Adams is becoming another Oscar darling. Her first Oscar nomination came in 2006 for supporting actress in “Junebug”. Since then, she’s garnered three additional nominations, all for supporting actress. Should she be nominated for “American Hustle”, it would be her first nomination for actress in a leading role. One of her four nominations came from “The Fighter” in 2011. That film, directed by David O. Russell, won supporting actor and supporting actress awards for Christian Bale and Melissa Leo. Last year, Russell directed Jennifer Lawrence to an Oscar win for “Silver Linings Playbook”. Do you see the pattern here? Russell gets great performances out of his talent. In “American Hustle”, he’s enlisted the help of five lead performers who have a combined total of ten Oscar nominations between them. It isn’t a matter of if someone will be nominated for “American Hustle”, it’s a matter of who. Until reviews start coming out, I can only speculate. I think Adams has a shot, but more information about the film still needs to emerge.

7. Adèle Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color

Adèle Exarchopoulos with Léa Seydoux in BLUE IS THE
WARMEST COLOR

Now here’s an interesting one to ponder. Last year, the Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, “Amour”, went on to earn five Oscar nominations including one for its lead actress Emmanuelle Riva. Riva’s performance was nothing short of spectacular and she was very deserving of her nomination. This year, “Blue is the Warmest Color” takes home the Palme d’Or. The film’s two leading actresses also collected honorary Palme d’Or’s from the jury in an unprecedented move. It was jury president Steven Spielberg’s way of saying the film’s success belongs to them just as much as it belongs to the filmmaker. Lead actress Adèle Exarchopoulos puts on one of the most flawless performances I have ever seen in a film. She’s on screen for every minute of its three hour run time. I think the film’s explicit sexual content could be something that keeps the film from earning many well deserved nominations. But Exarchopoulos is more than deserving of this honor. In all honesty she probably deserves to win. It might be too small to do any real damage (and its not even eligible for the Best Foreign Language Film), but it's no smaller than “Amour” so we’ll see what happens. I’d love for her to be singled out, but that will be a stretch.

8. Brie Larson – Short Term 12

Brie Larson with Kaitlyn Dever in SHORT TERM 12

“Short Term 12” is a movie not many – myself included, unfortunately – got a chance to see. The film made its premier at South By Southwest in the spring where it earned rave reviews for its star Brie Larson. Larson plays a supervisor at a foster care facility that looks after troubled kids. I’ve heard nothing but enthusiastic reviews about her performance. One tweet I came across after the film made its premier said that the viewer wished he could “throw every award on the planet” at Larson for this role. Granted, I haven’t seen the film so I can only go off the things I’ve heard. If the studio campaigns for her, perhaps she ends up as one of the five nominees. I think that’s a bit of a long shot.

9. Bérénice Bejo – The Past

Cannes Best Actress Bérénice Bejo in Asghar Farhadi's
THE PAST

This year’s winner of Best Actress at Cannes went to Bérénice Bejo for a film called “The Past” from Iranian filmmaker Asghar Farhadi. I know little about this film, but my only reason for including it in this list is because of Bejo’s win. She was also a Best Supporting Actress nominee in 2011 for her role in the eventual Best Picture winner “The Artist”. "The Past" will open in a limited run later in December so that it qualifies for this year’s Oscars. From what I understand, the film is powerful and so is Bejo’s performance. Judging from Farhadi’s previous film – “A Seperation” – and Bejo’s performance in “The Artist”, I would venture to guess these two probably work well together. I look forward to seeing this one when it opens. Bejo is probably a huge dark horse in this category, but I think she’s probably worth mentioning.

10. Julie Delpy – Before Midnight

Julie Delpy with Ethan Hawke in BEFORE MIDNIGHT

The last name on this list could go to any number of actresses from movies this year. Some performances I’ve seen, some I have not seen. The Best Actress category this year isn’t as competitive as some of the other acting categories, so I don’t really think it matters who I pick. Realistically, I think only the actresses listed at numbers one though seven have the best chances of securing a nomination. I would, however, love to see Julie Delpy come out of nowhere and secure a nomination for her performance in Richard Linklater’s “Before Midnight”. This film was the third film in Linklater’s ongoing series of films that takes us into the lives of two characters (Delpy and Ethan Hawke) every nine years. “Before Midnight” is a mesmerizing film thanks to the pitch perfect chemistry between Delpy and Hawke and their director. All three were nominated for Best Screenplay nine years ago for “Before Sunset” and I see another screenplay nomination in their future too. But the fan in me wants to see her nominated for Best Actress for this role. She’s been excellent in the two preceding films, and is absolutely sensational in “Before Midnight”.

In the next volume of Oscarology, we’ll have a look at the possible nominations for the supporting acting categories. There are plenty to choose from this year. Check back with us soon.