Oscarology: Volume 5 - Predictions for the 86th Annual Academy Awards

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

The nominations for the 86th Annual Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow morning at around 8:30am EST. When the nominations are unveiled, I believe the list will look something like this. Remember, the Best Picture category will contain at least five nominee but no more than 10. Therefore, the first five films listed are the guaranteed nominations. The next five are listed in order of confidence. Also note that the Visual Effects category and the Original Song category may or may not contain five nominees each. It's possible fewer than five will be nominated, but I've listed five on each. I have also not made any predictions on the three short film categories (Animated Short, Documentary Short and Live Action Short).

Best Picture of the Year
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Her
7. Nebraska
8. Saving Mr. Banks
9. Dallas Buyers Club
10. Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Director
12 Years a Slave - Steve McQueen
American Hustle - David O. Russell
Captain Phillips - Paul Greengrass
Gravity - Alfonso Cuarón
The Wolf of Wall Street - Martin Scorsese

Best Actor
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford - All is Lost

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl - Rush
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave - John Ridley
Before Midnight - Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips - Billy Ray
Philomena - Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street - Terence Winter

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle - Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine - Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club - Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack
Her - Spike Jonze
Nebraska - Bob Nelson

Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2 - Pierre Coffin, Chris Renaud
Ernest & Celestine - Stéphane Aubier, Vincent Patar, Benjamin Renner
Frozen - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee
Monsters University - Dan Scanlon
The Wind Rises - Hayao Miyazaki

Best Documentary Feature
20 Feet from Stardom - Morgan Neville
The Act of Killing - Christine Cynn, Joshua Oppenheimer
The Armstrong Lie - Alex Gibney
Blackfish - Gabriela Cowperthwaite
Stories We Tell - Sarah Polley

Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown - Belgium
The Great Beauty - Italy
The Hunt - Denmark
The Missing Picture - Germany
Two Lives - Cambodia

Best Cinematography
12 Years a Slave - Sean Bobbitt
American Hustle - Linus Sandgren
Gravity - Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis - Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska - Phedon Papamichael

Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave - Patricia Norris
American Hustle - Michael Wilkinson
Dallas Buyers Club - Kurt & Bart
The Great Gatsby - Catherine Martin
Saving Mr. Banks - Daniel Orlandi

Best Film Editing
12 Years a Slave - Joe Walker
American Hustle - Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassiby, Crispin Struthers
Captain Phillips - Christopher Rouse
Gravity - Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger
The Wolf of Wall Street - Thelma Schoonmaker

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Lone Ranger

Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave - Adam Stockhausen
American Hustle - Judy Becker
Gravity - Andy Nicholson
The Great Gatsby - Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy
Saving Mr. Banks - Michael Corenblith

Best Original Score
12 Years a Slave - Hans Zimmer
All is Lost - Alex Ebert
The Book Thief - John Williams
Gravity - Steven Price
Saving Mr. Banks - Thomas Newman

Best Original Song
Despicable Me 2 - "Happy" by Pharrell Williams
Frozen - "Let it Go" by Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
The Great Gatsby - "Young and Beautiful" by Lana Del Rey
Her - "The Moon Song" by Karen O
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - "Ordinary Love" by U2

Best Sound Editing
12 Years a Slave
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush

Best Sound Mixing
12 Years a Slave
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Visual Effects
Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Pacific Rim
World War Z