The end of the Hollywood awards season is here with the
presentation of the Academy Awards tomorrow night. It’s been a fantastic year
for movies which is evident based on how great all the nominees are this year.
Trevor and Joe have debated the nominees and have decided to offer up their
picks for the winners of all the big categories (we don’t pick the three Short
Film categories because we have not seen any of them). So here are our picks
for the 86th Annual Academy Awards. We welcome any and all attempts
to outguess us!
Best Picture of the
Year:

The way we see it, there are really only three movies that
could win this award: “12 Years a Slave”, “American Hustle” or “Gravity”. Joe
thinks a fourth film with a legitimate shot to win is “The Wolf of Wall Street”.
Trevor would be surprised to see that happen and thinks it has no chance.
“Slave”, “Hustle” and “Gravity” have enjoyed universal critical acclaim since
their openings. Both “Gravity” and “Hustle” have also enjoyed commercial
success grossing $269.6 million and $144.8 million respectively. Should
“Gravity” win, it would be the highest grossing movie to win the top prize
since “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” 10 years ago. “Slave”, on
the other hand, has only brought in $49.4 million, which would be one of the
lowest grossing movies to win over the last 10 years (behind only “The Artist”
and “The Hurt Locker”). Of the nine nominees, Trevor would vote for “Her” as
the Best Picture winner if he were an Academy member. Joe would vote for “Gravity”
as it topped his Best Ten list for 2013. However, given the subject matter of
“12 Years a Slave” and its continued critical success and high praise, we
believe that is what will walk away with the night’s top prize. We will also
have to refer to Brad Pitt as an Academy Award Winner from here on out seeing
as he is nominated as a producer in this category. Additionally, all nine of
these films deserve the recognition they’re getting by being in this category.
Every one of them. It’s been a very long time since we’ve been able to say that
about all the Best Picture nominees.
Best Director:

This one is open and shut. Take it to the bank. Go all in. Alfonso
Cuarón will win best director for “Gravity”. He’s won nearly every award in
this category this season including the Directors Guild Award. Winners of the
DGA almost always go on to win the Oscar for Best Director if they’re
nominated. Very rarely does this not line up. It didn’t last year, but Ben
Affleck wasn’t nominated at the Oscars for some reason. You have to go all the
way back to 2002 to see a director win the DGA, be nominated for the Oscars and
lose to someone else. Rob Marshall won the DGA for “Chicago”, was up for an
Oscar, but lost to Roman Polanski for “The Pianist”. The technical scale of “Gravity”
and how seamless Cuarón made the images on screen should be enough to secure
him a victory. The Academy, however, is famously anti-technology. James Cameron
was up in this category a few years ago for “Avatar” but failed to win (he did
not win the DGA that year either, so it wasn’t a complete surprise). “Avatar”
was a grand technical achievement - albeit a terrible film , but grand in size
nonetheless. It also revolutionized the current 3D trend, which “Gravity” is a
part of. Could the famously old and traditional Academy go for someone else
instead of someone who pursued new technologies? Could we see Steve McQueen
take the award for “12 Years a Slave” or even David O. Russell for “American
Hustle”? We’d both be shocked by that. This looks like the year the Academy
will finally honor the new technologies available to filmmakers. Cuarón should
win and will win.
Best Actor in a
Leading Role

Heading into the Oscar season, Trevor was all but certain
this award would be going to Chiwetel Ejiofor for “12 Years a Slave”. But then,
everyone saw “Dallas Buyers Club” and Matthew McConaughey’s role in it.
McConaughey has been cleaning up the awards circuit this season with wins at
the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. It seems pretty logical
that he will win the Oscar too. The Academy loves to see actors play real life
people. They also love to see actors go through major physical transformations
for their role. Check and check. He’s also the star of the new HBO series “True
Detective” which is the Toast of the Town right now. Rest assured, Oscar voters
will have that show on their mind when they cast their ballots for McConaughey.
There are some possible upsets in the mix though. Ejiofor winning would be a
surprise but not out of the realm of possibility, especially if the Academy
decides to gush over “12 Years a Slave”. Leonardo DiCaprio’s presence in this
category is also interesting. This is his fourth acting nomination and third in
the Best Actor category. A lot of people, including us, feel he’s a very
deserving actor for this award and has been passed over numerous times already
(mostly for films where he wasn’t nominated). Could this be the year where
Oscar voters say, “You know what, Leo? You’ve never won before. Here you go!”
That seems to have happened before. Julia Roberts winning an Oscar for “Erin
Brockovich” over Ellen Burstyn for “Requiem for a Dream” is one of those
instances. Another would be Sandra Bullock winning for “The Blind Side” rather
than Carey Mulligan for “An Education”. We both feel that McConaughey will win
this award. Joe, however, would vote for DiCaprio. Trevor wouldn’t be upset to
see DiCaprio win since he’s one of Trevor’s favorite actors. Trevor would vote
for Bruce Dern for “Nebraska” if he had a vote. We both disagree on who should
win this category, but agree that by the end of the night, McConaughey will
walk away with his first Oscar.
Best Actress in a
Leading Role

This one is a more sure thing than Cuarón is for Best
Director. Cate Blanchett put on one of the most critically acclaimed
performances of the year in Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine”. She’s cleaned up at
practically every award show and critics circle possible. She’s already won an
Oscar before for Supporting Actress in “The Aviator” in 2004. We would both
vote for her and we both think she will win. Her only real competition here
would be Amy Adams for “American Hustle”. Four people from “Hustle” are
nominated and you would expect they’d get at least one of those awards (more on
that later). We don’t see Christian Bale upsetting McConaughey for Best Actor
(we both think Bale is just lucky to be in that category anyway) nor do we see
Bradley Cooper winning in his category. Adams is a long shot here, but if there’s
any chance of an upset in this category, it’s Adams. And it would be a
monumental upset if she beat Blanchett.
Best Actor in a
Supporting Role

Jared Leto for “Dallas Buyers Club” is who will win this
category. We both think that. And how could anyone think any different? Leto,
much like McConaughey and Blanchett, has won just about every award possible
for his role. As with McConaughey, the Academy loves it when people go through
physical transformations. Leto lost a lot of weight for this role and has been
put in heavy makeup making him almost unrecognizable. He’s also mesmerizing in
his role as Rayon in “Dallas Buyers Club” so that helps out a little too. Joe
would absolutely vote for Leto in this category. Trevor would vote for Michael
Fassbender for his role as the evil and sadistic slave owner in “12 Years a
Slave”. Fassbender’s presence in this category is similar to Ralph Fiennes in
“Schindler’s List” where he played an evil and sadistic man, much like
Fassbender. Fiennes lost, but should have won. The Academy doesn’t really tend
to vote for evil and sadistic. Not unless they go through some kind of
transformation (Javier Bardem and his ugly hair style in “No Country for Old
Men” or Heath Ledger in the face paint in “The Dark Knight”). So while
Fassbender is great, his character is probably too evil for Oscar voters.
Bradley Cooper could score an upset, but that’s unlikely. The Academy could
vote for the ultimate Cinderella story and give it Barkhad Abdi in “Captain
Phillips”. The limo driver turned Oscar nominated actor scored a victory at the
British Academy Awards, but he wasn’t nominated against Leto. Look for Leto to
take home the award.
Best Actress in a
Supporting Role


This is the first category where Trevor and Joe disagree on
who will win. We believe this will be a two-woman race. First is Lupita Nyong’o
for her heartbreaking role in “12 Years a Slave”. Second is Jennifer Lawrence,
Hollywood’s current queen of everything, for her role as the crazy Rosyln in
“American Hustle”. Trevor would vote for Nyong’o but thinks Lawrence will end
up winning. Joe feels the opposite: he’d vote for Lawrence but thinks Nyong’o
will win. Lawrence was a winner last year in the Best Actress category. If she
wins, she’ll be the first actor to win an Oscar in back-to-back years since Tom
Hanks won for “Philadelphia” and “Forrest Gump” in 1993 and 1994 (Lawrence was
2 and 3 years old when those movies were released). She’d be the sixth
performer ever to win in back-to-back years, and the only one to win in the
separate acting categories. She’s great in “American Hustle” and Hollywood
loves her to pieces. Why wouldn’t they vote for her? Nyong’o is brand new to
Hollywood. “12 Years a Slave” is her first big role. She puts on a fearless
performance in the film. She even beat Lawrence during this awards season at
the Screen Actors Guild Awards. That’s a pretty big victory heading into the
Oscars. So this one could go either way. We love both of these actresses and
their performances this year. Who will win it?
Best Screenplay
There are several options for who could win in the two
screenplay categories. For Best Adapted Screenplay, we both think that John
Ridley’s screenplay for “12 Years a Slave” will win. Trevor would vote for “12
Years a Slave” if he were an Oscar voter while Joe would vote for Richard
Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke for their “Before Midnight” screenplay.
Joe is a big fan of that trilogy and this third installment was just as good as
the previous two. The upset special here could be Billy Ray’s “Captain
Phillips” screenplay, which won at the Writer’s Guild Awards (“12 Years a
Slave” wasn’t nominated) and recently at the British Academy Awards. Over in
the Original Screenplay category, we would both vote for Spike Jonze’s “Her” to
win. Joe thinks Jonze will walk home at the end of the night with an Oscar.
Trevor, on the other hand, thinks that David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer
will win for their “American Hustle” screenplay. A win here would boost
“American Hustle’s” chances of winning Best Picture, especially if “12 Years a
Slave” doesn’t win. You don’t normally win Best Picture without at least being
nominated for a Best Screenplay award. There are many exceptions to that rule,
but that’s typically how it goes. “Gravity” is not nominated here, so that
limits its chances, but only slightly.
For the other categories, let’s look briefly at what we each
think will win and what we would vote for.
We didn’t see any of the nominees for Best Documentary Feature, so we will abstain from voting there.
Trevor thinks “20 Feet from Stardom” will in this category. Joe thinks “The
Square” will win. We didn’t see any of the nominees for Best Foreign Language Film either. We both think Italy’s “The Great
Beauty will win. For Best Animated
Feature, we both think “Frozen” will win. Trevor only saw “Monsters
University” and “Despicable Me 2” so he’d vote for the latter. Joe would vote
for “Frozen”.
We both think “Gravity” will take Best Cinematography. We would both vote for Emmaunel Lubezki’s
groundbreaking work. We both think “Gravity” will take Best Film Editing. Joe would vote for it too, but Trevor would cast
his vote for “American Hustle”. For Best
Costume Design we like “American Hustle” to win and that’s where our vote
would go too. For Best Makeup and
Hairstyling, we like “Dallas Buyers Club” to win. We would vote for that
too. But why wasn’t “American Hustle” nominated here? Christian Bale’s epic
comb-over should have been enough to secure a nomination! For Best Production Design we both like
“The Great Gatsby” to take that. Trevor’s vote would go to “Her” while Joe
would vote for “American Hustle”.
For the two music categories, we would vote for “Her” in
both categories. For Best Original Score,
we both thought William Butler and Owen Pallett’s score was the year’s best
music. Trevor is a big fan of Butler’s band Arcade Fire (who was actually
credited in the film as writing the music, but I guess the Academy didn’t want
to recognize all the band members). However, we see Steven Price winning for
his work on “Gravity”. It’s hard to argue against that; the music in “Gravity”
was great. Best Original Song should
go to Karen O for “The Moon Song” from “Her”, but it won’t. Instead, we think
“Let It Go” from “Frozen” will win. That song is everywhere right now and it’s
by far the most popular song from that soundtrack. However, Pharrell’s song
“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” topped this week’s Billboard Hot 100 and it’s
the only song nominated that has. Could that be the upset? You can’t rule out
U2 either. Why wouldn’t Hollywood want to give an Oscar to Bono? They famously
denied him of the award once already in favor of Eminem back in 2002. This is a
great category. All four songs are really good. It would be a surprise if
“Frozen” did not win though.
As for Best Sound
Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects we would both vote
for “Gravity” on all three. We expect “Gravity” to actually win all three of
these as well. The only upset alert could be “Inside Llewyn Davis” winning in
Best Sound Mixing. That one typically goes to a musical when there’s one
nominated. “Inside Llewyn Davis” is the closest thing to a musical we have this
year. It’s pretty unlikely, but if it wins that’s why.
The 86th Annual Academy Awards will be held
tomorrow night, March 2, at 8:30pm EST/5:30pm PST and will be televised on ABC.
Tune in to see the show and to see how we did at picking the winners for this
year’s awards!