Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.
The Oscars for the supporting roles are always fun to pick.
The Academy loves to single out performances that are more like lead roles
rather than supporting roles. There have been countless roles nominated over
the years that fall into this category. And in the age of studio campaigning,
sometimes an actor will be submitted for consideration in the supporting
category even if they’re the main character of the film. The studios do this
when they see a crowded leading role category. They want to make sure their
performer gets the nomination. It’s all politics in Hollywood these days. One
of the most recent instances of this happening was when Kate Winslet was being
pushed for a supporting actress nomination for her performance in “The Reader”.
Winslet was the lead role in this film, but the studio decided she would have a
better chance of winning in the supporting category. The Academy ignored the
campaign and nominated her in the leading role category anyway. And wouldn’t
you know it – she won.
Let’s first have a look at the potential nominees for Best
Supporting Actor. The ten names listed below are ranked in order of how
confident I am that they’ll be nominated. Number one on my list is who I think
is the current frontrunner, number one through five are who I think the five nominees
will end up being and number six through 10 are my next highest hopefuls. All of which will no doubt change the close we get to the nominations. Let's
have a look:
1. Michael Fassbender
– 12 Years a Slave
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| Michael Fassbender embodies evil in 12 YEARS A SLAVE |
2. Jared Leto –
Dallas Buyers Club
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| Jared Leto unrecognizable with weight loss and makeup in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB |
Jared Leto is probably most famous outside of Hollywood for
being the lead singer of a rock band called 30 Seconds to Mars. You don’t
really see him do too many movies lately. The last movie I can recall seeing
him in without having to look it up was “Panic Room” in 2002. He’s done a few
things since then, but nothing since 2009. His most memorable performances were
in “Fight Club” and then the dark heroin drama “Requiem for a Dream” in 2000.
The latter really shows his acting range, but I never believed he had it in him
to turn in the kind of performance he did in “Dallas Buyers Club” this
year. He plays a transgendered AIDS
patient who helps Matthew McConaughey’s character sell unapproved drugs to
other AIDS patients in the mid-80s. This could have easily been just McConaughey’s movie, but
Leto is as unforgettable as McConaughey. I think we’re ultimately looking at a
two-man race here between Leto and Fassbender. I could easily see either one of
these actors walk away with the win on Oscar night, but as of right now I’m
giving a slight edge to Fassbender.
3. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
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| Tom Hanks as Walt Disney in SAVING MR. BANKS |
Tom Hanks has been nominated for five Oscars, winning two of
them. All five have been in the Best Actor category. His role as Walt Disney in
“Saving Mr. Banks” could earn him his sixth nomination this year, but it would
be his first in the Best Supporting Actor category. That’s just a guess, of
course. I’m not sure his role would qualify as a supporting role. The role is
about Disney’s relationship with Mary
Poppins author P.L. Travers and how he was able to secure the rights to her book. Sort of sounds
like a lead role to me, but consider this: Hanks will already be nominated for
his leading role in “Captain Phillips” so it would make sense that he’s
nominated in the other acting category rather than have him go up against
himself. The last time we saw this was in 2007 when Cate Blanchett was a Best
Actress nominee for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” and a Best Supporting Actress
nominee for “I’m Not There”. Overall, this has happened a total of eleven times. I think
we’ll see it happen for the twelfth time this year with Hanks being in both
categories. Hanks is an Academy favorite (he’s even on the Academy’s Board of
Governors). The Academy also loves movies about making movies, especially when
it involves the Golden Age. If the film is good and Hanks plays a memorable
version of Disney, I think he’s a lock.
4. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
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| Bradley Cooper getting groovy in AMERICAN HUSTLE |
People are finally able to talk about “American Hustle” now,
but reviews still can’t be published yet. All early reports are indicating the
film is great and that Bradley Cooper steals the show. That’s some high praise considering all the Oscar nominated and winning talent he’s surrounded by in
the film. To place him in the supporting acting category is just a guess at
this point. I think the Christian Bale character is probably who the film is
centered around. If the studio is going for as many nominations as possible,
they can’t plug both as leading actors. Director David O. Russell directed Cooper
to his first Oscar nomination in last year’s “Sliver Linings Playbook”. Cooper
stopped short of saying that role was a game changer for him, but he is well
aware that his career relies heavily on roles like this and “Silver Linings
Playbook” rather than “The Hangover”. I’m going mostly on hearsay and instinct
on this one right now since I still have yet to see the film, but I think
Cooper is probably a safe bet in this category.
5. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
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| Barkhad Abdi as another great villain in CAPTAIN PHILLIIPS |
While “Captain Phillips” is Tom Hanks’ movie, the man who
steals the show from him is Barkhad Abdi. Abdi plays the pirate leader that
hijacks Hanks’ ship and eventually takes him prisoner. Abdi is a Somalian
refuge living in Minnesota who has never acted before. Watching the film, you
would never know he’s a first-timer. He holds his own with Hanks and even
upstages him at times. The fact that he’s an unknown might not earn him many
votes for this nomination, but Quvenzhané Wallis was also an unknown last year
when she was nominated for “Beasts of the Southern Wild” in the Best Actress
category. I think Abdi will narrowly squeeze his way into his category and earn
himself a trip to the Dolby Theater in March.
6. Daniel Brühl – Rush
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| Daniel Brühl as Niki Lauda in RUSH |
If Abdi is not the fifth nominee for Best Supporting Actor,
I would have to think it will go to Daniel Brühl for his role in Ron Howard’s
biopic “Rush”. Brühl starred as the nemesis to Chris Hemsworth’s character. The
film was pretty stale overall, but Brühl was magnificent in his performance.
The film was advertised to be a film about Hemsworth’s character, but Brühl
ended up with more screen time. Be aware of supporting actors who appear to be
more of a lead. Some examples would be Tommy Lee Jones in his 1993 Oscar
winning performance from “The Fugitive” or George Clooney winning it in 2005
for his role in “Syriana”. Both actors felt more like main characters rather
than support. Brühl feels more like the main character in “Rush”. I give the
edge to Abdi securing the fifth slot over Brühl at this point, but that could
change the closer we get to the nomination announcement.
7. John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis
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| John Goodman back with the Coens in INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS |
Here’s another film I have yet to see since it hasn’t opened
in theaters yet. The Coen brothers have regularly cast John Goodman in their
films. Every time Goodman is in a Coen film, he’s excellent. He’s unforgettable
in their 1991 film “Barton Fink”. He’s a show stealer in their 1987 comedy
“Raising Arizona”. His part is small but memorable in their 2000 film “O
Brother, Where Art Thou?” and who could forget his highly quotable performance
in “The Big Lebowski”? It’s safe to say that Goodman’s performance in the
Coens’ latest film “Inside Llewyn Davis” will be yet another memorable
performance. Goodman plays a jazz musician in the new film. That’s really all I
know about it. This is a much more speculative pick than some of the others on
the list. Goodman is always on his game, and the movie going public really
likes him. This would be a very cool moment in his career should he come down
with this nomination.
8. Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners
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| Jake Gyllenhaal telling an Oscar voter to remember his performance in PRISONERS |
Jake Gyllenhaal is still an actor I’m trying to figure out.
He’ll go from one independent film to a major Hollywood tentpole film and back
again. He’s been great in his smaller roles, but not so much in the studio
pictures. While “Prisoners” is a studio film, the screenplay gave Gyllenhaal a
lot to work with. The role is challenging and it’s filled with so many little
nuances that he plays into so well. If I had a nominating vote with the
Academy, I would single him out. He’s outstanding in this film. Unfortunately,
the further away we get from this movie’s release (it came out back in
September, an eternity for Oscar voters) the more its being forgotten. I hope
he’s nominated, but I think he’s probably a long shot.
9. Harrison Ford – 42
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| Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey in 42 |
Speaking of long shot, Harrison Ford is another one. In this
year’s Jackie Robinson biopic “42”, Ford portrayed Brooklyn Dodgers general
manager Branch Rickey. Ford really disappeared into this character and he was
sensational. The film itself was a little up and down, but Ford was commanding
in every single scene he was in. He’s another guy I’d vote for if I had a spot
at the nominating table. He’s absolutely deserving of this nomination and I
hope he gets it. But if September’s release for “Prisoners” was an eternity,
what does that make “42’s” April release? Oscar voters have a short term memory
so this film is long forgotten. Every now and again, they’ll surprise you with
some recognition for a spring movie (“The Silence of the Lambs” was a
Valentine’s Day release in 1991 and went on to win the Best Picture Oscar over
12 months later), but I don’t know if they’ll remember “42” or Ford’s
performance.
10. James Gandolfini – Enough Said
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| James Gandolfini's final performance in ENOUGH SAID |
The Academy loves to pay tribute to their fallen during
their famous (and almost always controversial) “In Memoriam” segment during
their telecast. James Gandolfini was only 51 when he died of a heart attack
this past June. His last film was the romantic comedy “Enough Said” from
writer/director Nicole Holofcener. The studio is campaigning on behalf of
Gandolfini for this role in the Supporting Actor category. The Oscars haven’t
always been quick to give posthumous nominations. The most famous instance for
an actor was Heath Ledger for “The Dark Knight” in 2008. There have been many
other people over the years as well, but Ledger is the only actor to receive
a nomination posthumously and win as well. Having not seen “Enough Said”, I
can’t comment on his role. I’m sure he’s fantastic (as he always was). The question
is will the Academy want to bestow such a high honor on him? He’s already
secured a nomination for an Independent Spirit Award, so things are starting to
look good.
In the second part, we’ll have a look at the possible
nominees for Best Supporting Actress. Check back later this week for part 2.
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