Oscarology: Vol. 3, pt. 2 - Best Supporting Actress nominees

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

While every other acting category is stacked this year, I think the Best Supporting Actress category is pretty cut and dry. I still have a few question marks about a couple names listed below, but overall I think I already have this one picked perfectly. We’ll see what the next several weeks bring since the nominations are still over a month away from being released. The first five names below are the actresses I think will be nominated. The next five could be nominated, but most are probably more of my personal favorites from this year. I really do think that my first five will be this year's nominees with very little doubt in my mind.


1. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Best Supporting Actress frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence in
AMERICAN HUSTLE

I think Jennifer Lawrence’s star power is at a height that will be unmatched for the remainder of her career. She’s already won an Oscar (Best Actress last year for “Silver Linings Playbook”), and I have to believe she’s the frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actress for “American Hustle”. Her “Silver Linings Playbook” director, David O. Russell, directs her once again in “American Hustle” and by all accounts her performance is spectacular. It should be quite the departure for her as well. History does hold her back, however. Only five performers have won Oscars in back to back years: Luise Rainer, Spencer Tracy, Katherine Hepburn, Jason Robards and Tom Hanks. Hanks was the most recent person to do this: “Philadelphia” in 1993 and “Forrest Gump” in 1994. And in all five instances, each person won the same award in both years. Lawrence would be the first to win a lead and a supporting award in consecutive years. At this point in the race, I like her chances. 

2. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Oprah Winfrey in a drastic departure in LEE DANIELS'
THE BUTLER

If Lawrence isn’t the winner, I have a pretty good feeling that Oprah will walk away with the award for “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”. The film is a massive ensemble piece covering several decades. Oprah plays the wife to Forest Whitaker’s butler character. Her character is also an alcoholic with many show stealing scenes. Much like he did with Mo’Nique in “Precious”, Lee Daniels has shown audiences a much different side of a famous person that we’re not used to seeing. Mo’Nique put on one of the finest performances I’ve ever seen. She’s usually a comedian which makes it all the more impressive. Oprah is universally loved by millions of people, but her role in “The Butler” is much different than what we’re used to seeing. Oscar voters love drastic departures like this and they certainly love Oprah. I have to assume at this time if Lawrence doesn’t win it, Oprah will.

3. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Newcomer Lupita Nyong'o finds a rare moment of peace in
12 YEARS A SLAVE

Of course, the Academy could also award someone that nobody outside of the industry has ever heard of in Lupita Nyong’o. “12 Years a Slave” marks the Nyong’o’s American film debut, and what a debut it was! Her performance in the Steve McQueen directed film is one of the many highlights the film has. She’s probably the most deserving person of this award this year. Her notoriety, however, could be a hindrance. A few years ago, Carey Mulligan fell into this same situation. No one had really heard of her, but her performance in “An Education” was the best leading performance of the year. Instead, the Academy played it safe an awarded it to a name they all knew: Sandra Bullock. This doesn’t always happen though. Back in 1993, a 10 year old girl named Anna Paquin made her acting debut in “The Piano”. She went on to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress beating the likes of Holly Hunter, Rosie Perez, Winona Ryder and Emma Thompson. I don’t think Nyong’o winning is a long shot, but going up against Oprah and Lawrence will be tough.

4. June Squibb – Nebraska

Oh, you've never heard of June Squibb? 

June Squibb is a name you probably don’t know but definitely has a face you will recognize. Her role as Bruce Dern’s wife in “Nebraska” has earned rave reviews and will probably give the 84 year old actress her first Oscar nomination. You might remember Squibb in her short but very memorable role as Jack Nicholson’s wife in “About Schmidt” from 2002. The film was directed by Alexander Payne, who also happens to be the director of “Nebraska”. It’s no accident that Payne has seen many of his actors and actresses earn Oscar nominations; the man knows how to get exceptional performances out of his talent. Having not seen “Nebraska” yet, I can only go on hearsay. I can also go off the trailer as well, and Squibb’s scenes in the trailer are quite memorable. I think the Academy will recognize what’s sure to be a very strong performance from a seasoned veteran in the industry.

5. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station

Oscar winner Octavia Spencer in FRUITVALE STATION

Octavia Spencer just won this award two years ago for her role as Minny Jackson in Tate Taylor’s “The Help”.  I think she could easily find herself with another nomination for “Fruitvale Station”. Her role in the film is small, but powerful. She plays the mother to Michael B. Jordan’s character. The film’s finale is tragic, to say the least, and she shines in the moment. The movie isn’t about her, but she makes herself known in every scene. The film has received a bit of a boost thanks to the various independent film award shows and nominations that have already been announced. While those award shows don’t have a strong Oscar correlation, they do tend to help remind voters of some of the more popular independent films. “Fruitvale Station” won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance and was released this summer to widespread acclaim. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the film earn a few Oscar nominations as well, and Spencer is the most likely.

6. Margo Martindale – August: Osage County

Margo Martindale in AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

A couple months ago, I would have thought that “August: Osage County” would have been one of the few films to beat at this year’s Oscars. I think it’s lost some steam thanks to reviews that have been a little less than stellar. The film is still being praised, but not nearly as much as anticipated. Plus, Harvey Weinstein is marketing the film as a comedy so it can compete in the comedy categories at the Golden Globes. That’s a mistake since the film is a drama. I could still see it getting several Oscar nominations, mostly for the cast, but it will probably not get much else. One such recipient could be Margo Martindale. Martindale is an Emmy winner for her guest appearance on the FX series “Justified”. She also currently stars on a new CBS sitcom “The Millers”. She’ll pop up in random shows and movies here and there. A lot of people seem to want to work with her now. I’ll always remember her in the role of Hilary Swank’s deadbeat white-trash mother in “Million Dollar Baby”. Any number of actresses in this film could earn a nomination here, but I think Martindale is the most likely simply by going off her current popularity within Hollywood.

7. Naomi Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Naomi Harris as Winnie Mandela in MANDELA: LONG
WALK TO FREEDOM

“Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” is really Idris Elba’s film. However, the Best Actor category is loaded this year and I still don’t see him earning the nomination. If anyone is going to be nominated from this film, Naomi Harris is the best bet. She plays Mandela’s wife Winnie. The film has received rather stale reviews, which doesn’t surprise me. The film chronicles a rather short, albeit extremely important, time period in Nelson Mandela’s life. I had a feeling just from seeing the previews that the movie would probably not be the earth shattering, emotional engaging masterpiece that it was envisioned. But Harris looks great judging from the trailers, and I think if the film has any chance at nominations, it’s in this category. Or possibly the Best Song category because, let’s be honest, who in Hollywood doesn’t love Bono?

8. Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave

Sarah Paulson doesn't look so evil in 12 YEARS A SLAVE

Sarah Paulson plays the wife of Michael Fassbender’s character in “12 Years a Slave”. She’s just as twisted and evil as he is. Her hatred to her slaves, especially the character portrayed by Nyong’o, is despicable. Paulson sells it and puts on a phenomenal performance. The problem – if you can call this a problem – is that the film is full of great performances. I think Fassbender, Nyong’o and Chiwetel Ejiofor largely over shadow Paulson. It’s a shame because she’s very deserving. I think she should be considered by Oscar voters and will hopefully appear on nomination ballots, but I think she’s probably a bit of a long shot.

9. Melissa Leo – Prisoners

Melissa Leo once again doesn't look like herself in
PRISONERS

“Prisoners” is full of terrific performances, but one of the best is that of Melissa Leo. The former Oscar winner appears almost unrecognizable in her character. She’s crazy, twisted and deprived. She’s the perfect villain for this film. In fact, the further we get away from “Prisoner” the more I’ve started to appreciate just how brilliant of a film that movie was on all fronts. Leo clocks probably 20 minutes of screen time or less. But what a dynamite 20 minutes it was! Just like Jake Gyllenhaal, I would be voting for her in the nominations if I had a ballot. I would urge the Academy to strongly consider her in this category, but once again, I think it’s a long shot.  Movies released in September are typically long forgotten by the time nomination ballots are due. What a shame.

10. Léa Seydoux – Blue is the Warmest Color

Léa Seydoux in BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR

If I have to pick 10 names, I’m putting in an actress from one of my favorite movies this year, Léa Seydoux in “Blue is the Warmest Color”. While her co-star Adèle Exarchopoulos puts on one of the finest acting performances I’ve ever seen, Seydoux more than holds her own. In fact, part of the reason the film works so well is because the two of them have such strong chemistry and a genuine connection that seems so real. I’ve not seen two more realistic characters then Seydoux and Exarchopoulos. I would be voting for Seydoux if I could. Since I can’t, I think the Academy should take note.

That's it for volume 3! We're getting close to the Golden Globe nominations now. While those don't hole a direct correlation to the Oscars, they do influence the nomination process a bit. After the nominations are announced on December 12th, we'll revisit all the categories and see where we stand. I'll also make my first predictions for all the Oscar nominations at that time. Check back sometime next week!