Oscarology: Volume 4 - What's the Oscar Race Look Like Now?

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

Now that the Golden Globe nominees and Screen Actors Guild nominees have been announced – and also seeing what the numerous critics circles have honored so far – it is now time to revisit all my previous predictions and make a few changes to my initial predictions.

The Golden Globes are more of forecast model for the Oscars rath than a strong predictor. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association presents them and no member of that group is a member of the Academy. The Screen Actors Guild, however, is made up entirely of actors. Actors make up the largest percentage of Academy members. Their Awards do correlate pretty heavily into the Oscars.

There is still a lot that will happen between now and the day the nominations are announced including the nominees for the Producer’s Guild Awards, the Writer’s Guiild Awards and the Director’s Guild Awards (which is the most accurate award used to predict the ultimate winner of Best Picture, but more on that later). As for now, let’s look at each category I’ve already predicted along with a couple new ones.

Best Picture of the Year

12 YEARS A SLAVE, still my Best Picture frontrunner

I posted my first list of nominees for Best Picture back in September. Looking at what I had then and what I have now, I think my picks are pretty accurate. Here was my initial list:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. August: Osage County
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Gravity
5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
6. Captain Phillips
7. American Hustle
8. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
9. The Monuments Men
10. Saving Mr. Banks

Looking at that list now, the first thing that sticks out is “The Monuments Men.” Shortly after my Best Picture article was posted, the film’s release date was moved off Christmas Day to a February 2014 release. The studio recognized the crowded season and decided it was best to move it. So that one is immediately off the list.

Elsewhere, I still believe “12 Years a Slave” will win Best Picture. The critical praise for “American Hustle” has been very strong, so I think that’ll be moved up to the ranks of the guaranteed nominees. “August: Osage County” has taken a critical tumble since being screened. It’s still tracking well for its acting, but I think its Best Picture possibilities are all but gone. I still think “Gravity” is a guaranteed nominee, and so is “Inside Llewyn Davis,” but “Lee Daniels’ The Butler” has not been performing as well as I thought in these initial awards. It was shut out entirely from the Golden Globes and very few critic circles have been honoring it. If eight films end up getting nominated of this category, I think “The Butler” will be one of them. Anything less than eight and I think its in trouble.

“Captain Phillips” has received a lot more praise than I anticipated, so I’ve moved that up to one of my guaranteed nominations. “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “Nebraska” have made their way onto my list following universal critical acclaim. Finally, a film I listed in my first article to keep on eye on but really thought of it as a dark horse has made my list. That film is Spike Jonze’s “Her.” It may turn out to be a little odd and depressing for audiences but its hard to ignore all the praise being said about it.

Below is my revised list. Remember, everything is ranked in confidence. Movies listed in the 1-5 slots are the guaranteed nominees. There will be at least five films nominated in this category and no more than 10. Therefore, the movies listed in 6-10 reflect my confidence on which movie will secure that nomination. If there are 6 nominees, they will be movies 1-6. If there are seven nominees, it’ll be 1-7 and so on.

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Nebraska
8. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
9. Her
10. Saving Mr. Banks

Best Actor

Little has changed in the best actor category since I made my initial picks in October. There will only be five nominees in these other major categories. Therefore, picks 1-5 are who I think will be nominated and picks 6-10 are five others who also have a solid shot. Here was my first list of predictions:

1. Chiwetel Ejifor – 12 Years a Slave 

2. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
3. Bruce Dern – Nebraska
4. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
5. Robert Redford – All is Lost
6. Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station
7. Hugh Jackman – Prisoners
8. Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
9. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Christian Bale – American Hustle

Chiwetel Ejifor's Oscar victory is a done deal

I still like my five picks for the nomination. That hasn’t changed. I still think Chiwetel Ejifor will be the winner too, but that could change depending on what happens at these awards shows before the Oscars. I'm almost 100% certain he'll win this award though. The only thing I’m changing are the actors in slots 6-10. Forest Whitaker has received a few honors this season, so if anyone has a shot at being nominated other than Ejifor, McConaughey, Dern, Hanks or Redford, it’s Whitaker. But I don’t think it’ll come to that. I’ve dropped Hugh Jackman from the list and replaced him with Idris Elba for “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.” He received a nomination for the Globes, but I don’t know if the Academy will recognize that role, especially with the movie getting mediocre reviews. Here are my latest picks for Best Actor:

1. Chiwetel Ejifor – 12 Years a Slave
2. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
3. Bruce Dern – Nebraska
4. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
5. Robert Redford – All is Lost
6. Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
7. Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
8. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Christian Bale – American Hustle
10. Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station

Best Actress

Only a couple more months before Cate
Blanchett holds her second Oscar

Not many changes for Best Actress either. Here was my initial list:

1. Judi Dench – Philomena
2. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
3. Sandra Bullock – Gravity
4. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
5. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
6. Amy Adams – American Hustle
7. Adèle Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color
8. Brie Larson – Short Term 12
9. Bérénice Bejo– The Past
10. Julie Delpy – Before Midnight

The biggest change I’m making is I’m moving Cate Blanchett up to front runner status. She's won just about every award imaginable for her role in "Blue Jasmine." I think the five nominees will be exactly what I said before. Some more solid proof that I think I’m right: these five actresses were all nominated for Best Actress at the SAG Awards. The only other change I’m making is I’m dropping Bérénice Bejo from the list (her film “The Past” wasn’t even included on the list of finalists for Best Foregin Language Film). I’m slotting Kate Winslet in there for “Labor Day.” I doubt she’ll be nominated, but I need to fill up 10 names somehow. Here’s my revised list:

1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
2. Judi Dench – Philomena
3. Sandra Bullock – Gravity
4. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
5. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
6. Amy Adams – American Hustle
7. Kate Winslet – Labor Day
8. Julie Delpy – Before Midnight
9. Adèle Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color
10. Brie Larson – Short Term 12

Best Supporting Actor

I’m going to make a couple changes to Best Supporting Actor. Here was my first list.

1. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
2. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
3. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
4. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
5. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
6. Daniel Brühl – Rush
7. John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners
9. Harrison Ford – 42
10. James Gandolfini – Enough Said

Jared Leto's chances for Oscar Gold are improving everyday

First change: I’m making Jared Leto the frontrunner rather than Michael Fassbender. Leto has been winning awards left and right from the various critic circles. It’s hard to say for sure at this time who will definitely win the award at this point; I still think it’s a two man race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either actor win. Both performances were extraordinary. Right now I’ll say Leto will win it. Barkhad Abdi I’m moving up into a “locked” position after earning both a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nomination. I’m also moving up Daniel Brühl since he earned nominations from both groups too. Bradley Cooper rounds out my list of picks in this category. I also think there’s a slight chance James Gandolfini earns the posthumous nomination, but for now I’m leaving him right on the cusp. My John Goodman prediction doesn’t seem to be panning out so I’m dropping him off the list. Tom Hanks plummets down the list for his role in “Saving Mr. Banks.” He’s barely in the film and it’s more of a film for Emma Thompson. Personally, I’d lobby for a nomination for Colin Farrell, but I don’t think that’ll happen.

1. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
4. Daniel Brühl – Rush
5. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
6. James Gandolfini – Enough Said
7. Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
8. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
9. Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners
10. Harrison Ford – 42

Best Supporting Actress

Lupita Nyong'o stealing the show from her co-stars in
12 YEARS A SLAVE

I originally thought I had this category picked perfectly. I don’t think so anymore. Here was my original list:

1. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
2. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
3. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
4. June Squibb – Nebraska
5. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station
6. Margo Martindale – August: Osage County
7. Naomi Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
8. Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave
9. Melissa Leo – Prisoners
10. Lea Seydoux – Blue is the Warmest Color

Lawrence is great in “American Hustle,” there is no denying that. But I don’t see her as the front runner anymore. Initially I thought the Academy wouldn’t go for an unknown like Nyong’o but I now believe they will. She’s won numerous critics awards already and I believe she’ll collect more and more as the award season continues on. I still see June Squibb earning a nomination for her dynamite performance in "Nebraska." Oprah missed out on a Golden Globe nomination, but so did everyone else in “The Butler.” I still thinks she gets nominated. I didn’t even list Julia Roberts in my original article for “August: Osage County.” She’s earned a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nomination. There’ no reason to think she won’t be nominated for the Oscar.

1. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
3. June Squibb – Nebraksa
4. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
5. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
6. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station
7. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
8. Amy Adams – Her
9. Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave
10. Naomi Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Best Director

Steve McQueen directing Lupita Nyong'o on location in
12 YEARS A SLAVE

I didn’t do an article for Best Director. In order to fully determine who will be nominated in this category, we need to know who will be nominated for a Director’s Guild Award. Those will be announced on January 7, 2014. The Director’s Guild Award is a near perfect measuring stick for who will win Best Director and ultimately Best Picture. Only seven times since 1948 has the winner of the Director’s Guild Award not gone on to win Best Director. Three of those instances, the winner of the DGA wasn’t even nominated for the Best Director Oscar (Steven Spielberg for “The Color Purple,” Ron Howard for “Apollo 13” and Ben Affleck for “Argo”).

And almost always the winner of Best Director wins the Best Picture Oscar. Only twice in the last 10 years has this not happened – strangley both instances involve Ang Lee (2005 he won Best Director for “Brokeback Mountain” and the Best Picture went to “Crash,” and last year he won for “Life of Pi” while Best Picture went to “Argo”).

So when thinking about who will be the nominees, a good place to start is with the Best Picture nominees. Since “12 Years a Slave” is my frontrunner, I’m going to say Steve McQueen is my Best Director frontrunner. Right behind him, however, is Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity.” Cuarón’s technical achievement in “Gravity” is more than enough to earn him this award. There’s a very good chance that he could win this as well, but for right now I’m keeping him a close second. I’m also going to go with Paul Greengrass for “Captain Phillips.” He’s been nominated before for “United 93” and the man is the master of the action and thriller genre. “Captain Phillips” is an excellent movie and one of my guaranteed Best Picture locks, so he’s a lock here too. I’m also going to take David O. Russell for “American Hustle.” That will be one of the most nominated films of the year, so it should go without saying that he’ll be nominated as well. Lastly, I’m going to go with Spike Jonze for “Her.” That seems like the type of movie that’s going to be very unique which will require a unique and creative eye such as Jonze. He’s already been nominated in this category once before for “Being John Malkovich” and I think he’ll earn his second nomination this year. I’m a little uncertain about him, so I could easily see any of the people I have listed in spots 6-10 taking his place.

1. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity
3. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
4. David O. Russell – American Hustle
5. Spike Jonze – Her
6. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Alexander Payne – Nebraska
8. Joel & Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Lee Daniels – The Butler
10. Ryan Coogler – Fruitvale Station

Best Writing

The final of the major categories are the Best Original and Best Adapted Screenplay categories. I’m only going to list the five for each category I think will be nominated.

I believe the frontrunners in each of these categories will be the two most nominated films of the year: “American Hustle” for Best Original Screenplay and “12 Years a Slave” for Best Adapted Screenplay. All my other picks in these categories are Best Picture picks with the exception of “Before Midnight” and “Philomena” in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. “Before Midnight” counts as an adapted screenplay because it contains characters that have already been written (the characters come from the previous films in this series “Before Sunrise” and “Before Sunset”). The same thing happened when “Toy Story 3” was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay a few years ago. The story was original, but the characters were previously produced. As a matter of fact, the official names for these categories are “Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen” and “Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Published or Produced.”

Best Original Screenplay
1. American Hustle - Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
2. Blue Jasmine - Woody Allen
3. Nebraska - Bob Nelson
4. Her - Spike Jonze
5. Inside Llewyn Davis - Joel & Ethan Coen

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 12 Years a Slave - John Ridley
2. The Wolf of Wall Street - Terence Winter
3. Captain Phillips - Billy Ray
4. Before Midnight - Richard Linklater & Ethan Hawke & Julie Delpy
5. Philomena - Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope

The next volume of Oscarology will be published on January 15, 2014, the day before the Oscar nominations are announced. In that volume, I will make my final predictions for every category with the exception of the three short film categories (Live Action Short, Documentary Short and Animated Short). Stay tuned for that!