Review: Nebraska

by Trevor Kirkendall
★★★★

Bruce Dern and Will Forte spend valuable father/son time
together throughout "Nebraska"

“Nebraska” centers around Woody Grant (Bruce Dern), an old alcoholic who doesn’t appear to have much of a functioning mind left anymore. He’s been wondering away from his home in Billings, MT everyday attempting to walk to Lincoln, NE to claim what he believes is a million dollar prize from one of those mail-in sweepstakes magazine promotions. What’s he need a million dollars for? For a new truck, of course. Just to have one. And an air compressor.

Obviously, he hasn’t won anything because everyone knows those promotions are scams. Woody’s wife Kate (June Squibb) is fed up with him and wants to stick him in a home. Their sons try to help when they can. Their oldest son Ross (Bob Odenkirk) works for the TV station so he can’t really help out around the house since he’s always at work. Their youngest son David (Will Forte) feels a little differently. He sees his father’s mind going and thinks he might as well let him have this one.

David decides he’s going to drive his father down to Lincoln anyway, even though he knows his dad has won nothing. They begin their journey, which gets a little side tracked when Woody stumbles into the hotel room one night after drinking and splits his head open on the dresser. They decide to take a detour to Hawthorne, NE where Woody and Kate are originally from. They see all sorts of old family and friends, including Woody’s old business partner Ed (Stacy Keach). Kate and Ross even join them for the weekend. Everyone is so excited for Woody’s good fortune, even though he really hasn’t come into any money. But that’s not something people want to hear.

Perfection is not a word anyone really likes to use when trying to describe something. Perfection indicates that a work is free of any error of flaw. Whether a movie is perfect of not is a matter of opinion. I never like to throw that word around when talking about a movie. And despite talking about perfection right now, I’m still not going to say “Nebraska” is perfect. I will, however, praise Alexander Payne for delivering perfection on many different levels in this film.

The casting in “Nebraska” is perfect. Bruce Dern is perfect. Dern more than delivers in this role and – yes, I will say it – is flawless in his delivery. Dern is already a sensational actor, but this will be the film he’s remembered for.  Will Forte, best known for his work on “Saturday Night Live,” is also spectacular. He’s maybe a little overshadowed in this film by Dern, but make no mistake, Forte more than holds his own. He’s more than just MacGruber and he proves it here. June Squibb has only a handful of scenes, but she steals almost all of them from her costars. Add in Bob Odenkirk and Payne has given us a very real and very believable family.

Payne’s handling of this story is perfect. This is the first film he’s made where he wasn’t directly involved in the screenwriting process. The script was written by Bob Nelson, who has crafted a very simplistic yet deeply moving story. His use of humor is also noteworthy. The film is absolutely hysterical at many different times, which works very well in contrast to the film’s more dramatic moments. And even though this isn’t a film scripted by Payne, it has all the typical trademarks that make his movies unique.

Nebraska's countryside has never looked more beautiful
in simplistic black-and-white

Payne’s decision to film “Nebraska” in black-and-white is also touch of brilliance. He reunites with his regular director of photography Phedon Papamichael and they’ve photographed the lonely and bare landscapes of Nebraska’s farmland with such poetic beauty utilizing only black-and-white. The simplistic nature of the story calls only for a simplistic use of color and contrast. Payne keeps everything simple in “Nebraska,” including the use of the music. Mark Orton, from an acoustic group called Tin Hat, provides the perfect score for this film with minimalist instrumentation. The folk/bluegrass sound matches well against the black-and-white landscape, which matches the story, which is perfectly executed by its cast. Top to bottom, “Nebraska” delivers on all aspects. This is Payne’s finest achievement in his career.

But where “Nebraska” really delivers is just how honest the story is. It’s more than a privilege to be a fly on a wall as we watch Woody and David reconnect. We don’t know a whole lot about their relationship in the immediate time leading up to the moment the film begins. They might see each other every couple of days or maybe they don’t see each other much at all. We’re never really told. Either way, Woody’s mind is beginning to leave him, and David might not have a whole lot of time left to spend with his father.

“Nebraska” explores this theme of the relationships between aging parents and their adult children. It’s a story that should resonate very well with anyone with senior parents. The time you have with them is limited and the time you spend, no matter what you’re doing, is valuable. Even if you’re just chasing down delusional fantasies, that time is something that shouldn’t be taken for granted. That’s the simple way to state the theme for this film, and it’s a perfect message for just about anybody.   

Review: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

By. Joe Moss
★★

Well, I can safely say that Peter Jackson's 2013 continuation of the beloved J.R.R. Tolkein classic "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug" is far and away better than the first part, "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" released last year. The pace of this movie is on par with the Fellowship trilogy; the graphics and cinematography are amazing (as is expected from Peter Jackson's Wingnut Films company). What is not amazing...the length of the film once again deters from the plot and the overall enjoy-ability.

The plot picks up where the "Unexpected Journey" left off; albeit, with a slight delay. There is a short flashback sequence in the first ten minutes of the film showing Gandolf (Ian McKellen) and Thorin (Richard Armitage) meeting in the Prancing Pony in Bree. This flashback serves to remind the moviegoers about the purpose of the story (#1 of the unnecessary scenes in the movie) to rightfully regain Thorin his place among the dwarf-lords as the King under the Mountian. After this dalliance, Jackson immediately switches back to Bilbo and the group being chased through the mountains by the Orcs and a large shape-shifting bear. A horrible transitional sequence if I say so myself.

The troop of thirteen finally reaches Mirkwood, and Gandolf deaprts to fulfill an obligation to the Elf Queen, Lady Galadriel (Kate Blanchett). Bilbo and the Dwarfin troop are told to take the Elvin Road through the forest and "do not stray" from the path. We are immersed into the memorable interplay of the Moria spiders who are invading Mirkwood and finally re-introduced to a character from the Fellowship series--Legolas (Orlando Bloom) as well as the captain of the guard, Tauriel (Evangeline Lilly). The elfin actors arrive into the plot with commanding presence, skillful swordplay and deftness of the foot. The travelers/trespassers are taken into custody and brought forth to the king. After a hilarious escape sequence--and the second bit of action (thankful to keeping the audience awake) involving Orcs, elves, and half-drowning dwarfs--we arrive at the boarders of Mirkwood. To cross the lake, the troop enlists the help of a man, Bard (Luke Evans) to smuggle them through Lake-town to be closer to the Lonely Mountian (Erebor).

To not give too much more away, the troop finally arrives at the mountain, Bilbo manages to get into the Hidden Door of Erebor to attempt to steal the Arkenstone for Thorin from the sleeping dragon usurper. Thus ensues a great interplay between the other character who upstages the hobbit and dwarf main characters, Smaug (Benedict Cumberbatch in one of his two roles in the film). Smaug (surely an allusion to Smug) is full of himself and his self-assuredness is to be his ultimate downfall.....but this all seems anti-climatic at beast since it took so long for us to reach the point of the entire Hobbit story--the showdown between Bilbo, Thorin, Bard and Smaug.

Peter Jackson has truly taken a well-known story and tried to fill 6+ hours of film in a story that should have taken 3 hours at maximum to do it justice--maybe 4 if he wanted to make two parts or an "extended edition" as was done with Fellowship. He was truly overzealous to the point of ridiculous with the long drawn out marching sequences that worked in Fellowship, yet seem contrite in "The Hobbit." What allowed him to make three movies for the Fellowship was that it was THREE BOOKS and people expected him to do it justice. The Hobbit is only 300 pages in total length. For Jackson to make so long a film sequence is maddening. He is fluffing  the entire script with information from The Silmarillion (Tolkein's book on Elfish history), back-stories from the Fellowship, as well as from the Tolkein Reader set of short stories AND adding characters into the Hobbit who are not supposed to be there--remember Legolas and Tauriel...they are not even in the story--just adding drama. The whole "crossed-lovers"  interplay between Tauriel and the Dwarf, Kili (Aiden Turner) does not occur either and just serves to add unnecessary drama and time to the script.

Again, I would like to state that the scenery and the cinematography is gorgeous, but the sequences suffer from poor editing. I almost feel as though Jackson did not allow the editors (lead by Jabez Olssen who worked on all of the Fellowship) to perform their job properly. You end up with many poor transitions throughout the film, namely every time that Gandolf reappears in the plot almost seems as a jolt to the system. There is not the smoothness that we expect from a Peter Jackson film. Some of the minor characters from the book--especially Beorn the shape-shifter and Bolg the Orc--are given too much individual screen time that adds absolutely nothing to the plot as a whole.

Did I like this movie better than the first part? YES. Do I love this movie, sadly NO.

Review: Out of the Furnace

by William Hill

★★★½

Out of the Furnace comes to us from Scott Cooper, director of 2009's Crazy Heart. I never saw Crazy Heart, and I didn't have an inkling of hype for Out of the Furnace. With Ridley Scott and Leonardo DiCaprio producing, I am also surprised that there wasn't more fanfare for this one. Still, I went into this with light expectations, and given the middling response from many critics, I didn't know what I was going into. The synopsis seemed generic, and the premise a bit too stereotypical of modern dramas.

The official story is that Russell Baze, played by Christian Bale, pursues a dangerous crime ring to find his brother after he's gone missing. While this paints a picture of a taut thriller where Bale fights a bunch of thugs, it really isn't anything like that. In fact, the advertised missing brother plot doesn't even go into play until over an hour after the film starts.

The film opens with an comfortable scene where Harlan DeGroat (Woody Harrelson), is at a drive in theater with his date. He turns into Woody Harrelson, and argues with his date, before beating a man, and walking out. Cut to Russel's introduction, working in a steel mill in Pennsylvania. He leaves work, and find that his brother, Rodney (Casey Affleck), is gambling on races, and in debt to a local loan shark. There is an immediate connection between the two, and their relationship is setup in mere seconds. Russel pays part of Rodney's debt to John Petty (Willem Dafoe) some time later, and we even meet Russel's girlfriend Lena (Zoe Saldana) in between. It's a tightly paced first act that lands Russel in prison for drunk driving. When he is release, Russel learns that Rodney has gotten involved with underground fighting to pay off his debts to Petty.

I had this horrible dream that I was dating someone who couldn't emote.

If I have any issue with the story, it is that the first act can seem a little flaky at first. With Russel ending up in jail only minutes into the film, and the fact that Russel barely seems drunk when he leaves the bar, the whole movie doesn't seem to know what it is doing for a few minutes. Thankfully, by the time the second act finally finds a pulse, the rest of the film finds a way to make the first act seem worthwhile. However, this still makes the first act weak, because it shouldn't rely on the second act to give it purpose. I will say that the finale is intensely satisfying.

What I find strange is that Out of the Furnace is marketed as a revenge film, but it has more to do with self-absolution following tragedy. Both Russel and Rodney are dealing with their ghosts. While Russel deals with the deaths he caused in his car accident, Rodney is the survivor of four tours of duty in Iraq, and carries gruesome memories that disrupt his performance in fights that he is supposed to be throwing. It's a taut drama, but hardly the thriller that the marketing illustrates.

The first rule of Fight Club is please stop making Fight Club jokes.

Out of the Furnace is probably the most earthy film I've seen this year. A muted color palette tinged with hues of warm yellow are cast on dark colored walls and living areas, and there are moments of high contrast lighting. It's got this brilliant early seventies vibe, all the further augmented with soft focus and a lot of steady handheld photography. There are a few shots that I felt were less than inspired, but aside from those nitpicks, it's a gorgeously shot film. Juxtaposed with a subtle soundtrack of simple guitar lines and sustaining woodwinds and light strings, there are a lot of warm moments with Russel, and sequences of stark desperation with Rodney. I have to give special recognition to the inclusion of Release by Pearl Jam early in the film. In retrospect, that should have told me exactly what kind of movie I was dealing with.

In all seriousness, these guys did more acting in this scene
than what's contained in an entire stack of Man of Steel blu-rays.

Out of the Furnace sees one of Christian Bale's finest performances to date, spoken with great care and more heart than I've ever seen him put into a role. Willem Dafoe proves to slip outside of the loan shark stereotype, and prove to be more likable than Casey Affleck, who still performed extremely well. Woody Harrelson played the typical Woody Harrelson act, but it's still an intense and disturbed performance, and shouldn't be discounted. The writing is top notch, and the experience overall is far more memorable than I'd expected. With a lot of competition in the theaters right now, I can still say that Out of the Furnace is among the best on the big screen right now. 

Oscarology: Vol. 3, pt. 2 - Best Supporting Actress nominees

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

While every other acting category is stacked this year, I think the Best Supporting Actress category is pretty cut and dry. I still have a few question marks about a couple names listed below, but overall I think I already have this one picked perfectly. We’ll see what the next several weeks bring since the nominations are still over a month away from being released. The first five names below are the actresses I think will be nominated. The next five could be nominated, but most are probably more of my personal favorites from this year. I really do think that my first five will be this year's nominees with very little doubt in my mind.


1. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Best Supporting Actress frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence in
AMERICAN HUSTLE

I think Jennifer Lawrence’s star power is at a height that will be unmatched for the remainder of her career. She’s already won an Oscar (Best Actress last year for “Silver Linings Playbook”), and I have to believe she’s the frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actress for “American Hustle”. Her “Silver Linings Playbook” director, David O. Russell, directs her once again in “American Hustle” and by all accounts her performance is spectacular. It should be quite the departure for her as well. History does hold her back, however. Only five performers have won Oscars in back to back years: Luise Rainer, Spencer Tracy, Katherine Hepburn, Jason Robards and Tom Hanks. Hanks was the most recent person to do this: “Philadelphia” in 1993 and “Forrest Gump” in 1994. And in all five instances, each person won the same award in both years. Lawrence would be the first to win a lead and a supporting award in consecutive years. At this point in the race, I like her chances. 

2. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Oprah Winfrey in a drastic departure in LEE DANIELS'
THE BUTLER

If Lawrence isn’t the winner, I have a pretty good feeling that Oprah will walk away with the award for “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”. The film is a massive ensemble piece covering several decades. Oprah plays the wife to Forest Whitaker’s butler character. Her character is also an alcoholic with many show stealing scenes. Much like he did with Mo’Nique in “Precious”, Lee Daniels has shown audiences a much different side of a famous person that we’re not used to seeing. Mo’Nique put on one of the finest performances I’ve ever seen. She’s usually a comedian which makes it all the more impressive. Oprah is universally loved by millions of people, but her role in “The Butler” is much different than what we’re used to seeing. Oscar voters love drastic departures like this and they certainly love Oprah. I have to assume at this time if Lawrence doesn’t win it, Oprah will.

3. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Newcomer Lupita Nyong'o finds a rare moment of peace in
12 YEARS A SLAVE

Of course, the Academy could also award someone that nobody outside of the industry has ever heard of in Lupita Nyong’o. “12 Years a Slave” marks the Nyong’o’s American film debut, and what a debut it was! Her performance in the Steve McQueen directed film is one of the many highlights the film has. She’s probably the most deserving person of this award this year. Her notoriety, however, could be a hindrance. A few years ago, Carey Mulligan fell into this same situation. No one had really heard of her, but her performance in “An Education” was the best leading performance of the year. Instead, the Academy played it safe an awarded it to a name they all knew: Sandra Bullock. This doesn’t always happen though. Back in 1993, a 10 year old girl named Anna Paquin made her acting debut in “The Piano”. She went on to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress beating the likes of Holly Hunter, Rosie Perez, Winona Ryder and Emma Thompson. I don’t think Nyong’o winning is a long shot, but going up against Oprah and Lawrence will be tough.

4. June Squibb – Nebraska

Oh, you've never heard of June Squibb? 

June Squibb is a name you probably don’t know but definitely has a face you will recognize. Her role as Bruce Dern’s wife in “Nebraska” has earned rave reviews and will probably give the 84 year old actress her first Oscar nomination. You might remember Squibb in her short but very memorable role as Jack Nicholson’s wife in “About Schmidt” from 2002. The film was directed by Alexander Payne, who also happens to be the director of “Nebraska”. It’s no accident that Payne has seen many of his actors and actresses earn Oscar nominations; the man knows how to get exceptional performances out of his talent. Having not seen “Nebraska” yet, I can only go on hearsay. I can also go off the trailer as well, and Squibb’s scenes in the trailer are quite memorable. I think the Academy will recognize what’s sure to be a very strong performance from a seasoned veteran in the industry.

5. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station

Oscar winner Octavia Spencer in FRUITVALE STATION

Octavia Spencer just won this award two years ago for her role as Minny Jackson in Tate Taylor’s “The Help”.  I think she could easily find herself with another nomination for “Fruitvale Station”. Her role in the film is small, but powerful. She plays the mother to Michael B. Jordan’s character. The film’s finale is tragic, to say the least, and she shines in the moment. The movie isn’t about her, but she makes herself known in every scene. The film has received a bit of a boost thanks to the various independent film award shows and nominations that have already been announced. While those award shows don’t have a strong Oscar correlation, they do tend to help remind voters of some of the more popular independent films. “Fruitvale Station” won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance and was released this summer to widespread acclaim. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the film earn a few Oscar nominations as well, and Spencer is the most likely.

6. Margo Martindale – August: Osage County

Margo Martindale in AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

A couple months ago, I would have thought that “August: Osage County” would have been one of the few films to beat at this year’s Oscars. I think it’s lost some steam thanks to reviews that have been a little less than stellar. The film is still being praised, but not nearly as much as anticipated. Plus, Harvey Weinstein is marketing the film as a comedy so it can compete in the comedy categories at the Golden Globes. That’s a mistake since the film is a drama. I could still see it getting several Oscar nominations, mostly for the cast, but it will probably not get much else. One such recipient could be Margo Martindale. Martindale is an Emmy winner for her guest appearance on the FX series “Justified”. She also currently stars on a new CBS sitcom “The Millers”. She’ll pop up in random shows and movies here and there. A lot of people seem to want to work with her now. I’ll always remember her in the role of Hilary Swank’s deadbeat white-trash mother in “Million Dollar Baby”. Any number of actresses in this film could earn a nomination here, but I think Martindale is the most likely simply by going off her current popularity within Hollywood.

7. Naomi Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Naomi Harris as Winnie Mandela in MANDELA: LONG
WALK TO FREEDOM

“Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” is really Idris Elba’s film. However, the Best Actor category is loaded this year and I still don’t see him earning the nomination. If anyone is going to be nominated from this film, Naomi Harris is the best bet. She plays Mandela’s wife Winnie. The film has received rather stale reviews, which doesn’t surprise me. The film chronicles a rather short, albeit extremely important, time period in Nelson Mandela’s life. I had a feeling just from seeing the previews that the movie would probably not be the earth shattering, emotional engaging masterpiece that it was envisioned. But Harris looks great judging from the trailers, and I think if the film has any chance at nominations, it’s in this category. Or possibly the Best Song category because, let’s be honest, who in Hollywood doesn’t love Bono?

8. Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave

Sarah Paulson doesn't look so evil in 12 YEARS A SLAVE

Sarah Paulson plays the wife of Michael Fassbender’s character in “12 Years a Slave”. She’s just as twisted and evil as he is. Her hatred to her slaves, especially the character portrayed by Nyong’o, is despicable. Paulson sells it and puts on a phenomenal performance. The problem – if you can call this a problem – is that the film is full of great performances. I think Fassbender, Nyong’o and Chiwetel Ejiofor largely over shadow Paulson. It’s a shame because she’s very deserving. I think she should be considered by Oscar voters and will hopefully appear on nomination ballots, but I think she’s probably a bit of a long shot.

9. Melissa Leo – Prisoners

Melissa Leo once again doesn't look like herself in
PRISONERS

“Prisoners” is full of terrific performances, but one of the best is that of Melissa Leo. The former Oscar winner appears almost unrecognizable in her character. She’s crazy, twisted and deprived. She’s the perfect villain for this film. In fact, the further we get away from “Prisoner” the more I’ve started to appreciate just how brilliant of a film that movie was on all fronts. Leo clocks probably 20 minutes of screen time or less. But what a dynamite 20 minutes it was! Just like Jake Gyllenhaal, I would be voting for her in the nominations if I had a ballot. I would urge the Academy to strongly consider her in this category, but once again, I think it’s a long shot.  Movies released in September are typically long forgotten by the time nomination ballots are due. What a shame.

10. Léa Seydoux – Blue is the Warmest Color

Léa Seydoux in BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR

If I have to pick 10 names, I’m putting in an actress from one of my favorite movies this year, Léa Seydoux in “Blue is the Warmest Color”. While her co-star Adèle Exarchopoulos puts on one of the finest acting performances I’ve ever seen, Seydoux more than holds her own. In fact, part of the reason the film works so well is because the two of them have such strong chemistry and a genuine connection that seems so real. I’ve not seen two more realistic characters then Seydoux and Exarchopoulos. I would be voting for Seydoux if I could. Since I can’t, I think the Academy should take note.

That's it for volume 3! We're getting close to the Golden Globe nominations now. While those don't hole a direct correlation to the Oscars, they do influence the nomination process a bit. After the nominations are announced on December 12th, we'll revisit all the categories and see where we stand. I'll also make my first predictions for all the Oscar nominations at that time. Check back sometime next week!

Oscarology: Vol 3, pt. 1 - Best Supporting Actor nominees

Welcome to Oscarology, the study of the Hollywood awards season culminating with the presentation of the Academy Awards in March 2014. I am Trevor Kirkendall, your resident Oscarologist. I’ve been studying the tendencies of the Oscars since 1993 and have since earned my PhD in this study. The following series of articles will cover the landscape of the upcoming awards season from now until the nominations are announced on January 16, 2014.

The Oscars for the supporting roles are always fun to pick. The Academy loves to single out performances that are more like lead roles rather than supporting roles. There have been countless roles nominated over the years that fall into this category. And in the age of studio campaigning, sometimes an actor will be submitted for consideration in the supporting category even if they’re the main character of the film. The studios do this when they see a crowded leading role category. They want to make sure their performer gets the nomination. It’s all politics in Hollywood these days. One of the most recent instances of this happening was when Kate Winslet was being pushed for a supporting actress nomination for her performance in “The Reader”. Winslet was the lead role in this film, but the studio decided she would have a better chance of winning in the supporting category. The Academy ignored the campaign and nominated her in the leading role category anyway. And wouldn’t you know it – she won.

Let’s first have a look at the potential nominees for Best Supporting Actor. The ten names listed below are ranked in order of how confident I am that they’ll be nominated. Number one on my list is who I think is the current frontrunner, number one through five are who I think the five nominees will end up being and number six through 10 are my next highest hopefuls. All of which will no doubt change the close we get to the nominations. Let's have a look:

1. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Michael Fassbender embodies evil in 12 YEARS A SLAVE

Hollywood loves to award the great cinematic villains whenever an actor turns in a memorable performance. Heath Ledger famously won for “The Dark Knight” in 2008 following his untimely death. Javier Bardem’s chilling villain won it for “No Country for Old Men” in 2007. Going back a little further, there was Louise Fletcher as Nurse Ratched in “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest”. And who could forget Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lector? This year, Michael Fassbender’s portrayal of Edwin Epps in “12 Years a Slave” ranks right up there with the rest of these famous villains. Epps is one of the best villains ever put on screen. Fassbender more than deserves to win this award. However, he has stated that he will do no campaigning for this Oscar. Securing nominations and winning Oscars has a lot to do with how much an actor or a studio campaigns for their star, and Fassbender wants none of it this year. His performance is strong enough for him to still secure a nomination and walk away with the award without any bit of campaigning.

2. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Jared Leto unrecognizable with weight loss and makeup
in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Jared Leto is probably most famous outside of Hollywood for being the lead singer of a rock band called 30 Seconds to Mars. You don’t really see him do too many movies lately. The last movie I can recall seeing him in without having to look it up was “Panic Room” in 2002. He’s done a few things since then, but nothing since 2009. His most memorable performances were in “Fight Club” and then the dark heroin drama “Requiem for a Dream” in 2000. The latter really shows his acting range, but I never believed he had it in him to turn in the kind of performance he did in “Dallas Buyers Club” this year. He plays a transgendered AIDS patient who helps Matthew McConaughey’s character sell unapproved drugs to other AIDS patients in the mid-80s. This could have easily been just McConaughey’s movie, but Leto is as unforgettable as McConaughey. I think we’re ultimately looking at a two-man race here between Leto and Fassbender. I could easily see either one of these actors walk away with the win on Oscar night, but as of right now I’m giving a slight edge to Fassbender.

3. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks

Tom Hanks as Walt Disney in SAVING MR. BANKS

Tom Hanks has been nominated for five Oscars, winning two of them. All five have been in the Best Actor category. His role as Walt Disney in “Saving Mr. Banks” could earn him his sixth nomination this year, but it would be his first in the Best Supporting Actor category. That’s just a guess, of course. I’m not sure his role would qualify as a supporting role. The role is about Disney’s relationship with Mary Poppins author P.L. Travers and how he was able to secure the rights to her book. Sort of sounds like a lead role to me, but consider this: Hanks will already be nominated for his leading role in “Captain Phillips” so it would make sense that he’s nominated in the other acting category rather than have him go up against himself. The last time we saw this was in 2007 when Cate Blanchett was a Best Actress nominee for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” and a Best Supporting Actress nominee for “I’m Not There”. Overall, this has happened a total of eleven times. I think we’ll see it happen for the twelfth time this year with Hanks being in both categories. Hanks is an Academy favorite (he’s even on the Academy’s Board of Governors). The Academy also loves movies about making movies, especially when it involves the Golden Age. If the film is good and Hanks plays a memorable version of Disney, I think he’s a lock.

4. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Bradley Cooper getting groovy in AMERICAN HUSTLE

People are finally able to talk about “American Hustle” now, but reviews still can’t be published yet. All early reports are indicating the film is great and that Bradley Cooper steals the show. That’s some high praise considering all the Oscar nominated and winning talent he’s surrounded by in the film. To place him in the supporting acting category is just a guess at this point. I think the Christian Bale character is probably who the film is centered around. If the studio is going for as many nominations as possible, they can’t plug both as leading actors. Director David O. Russell directed Cooper to his first Oscar nomination in last year’s “Sliver Linings Playbook”. Cooper stopped short of saying that role was a game changer for him, but he is well aware that his career relies heavily on roles like this and “Silver Linings Playbook” rather than “The Hangover”. I’m going mostly on hearsay and instinct on this one right now since I still have yet to see the film, but I think Cooper is probably a safe bet in this category.

5. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Barkhad Abdi as another great villain in CAPTAIN
PHILLIIPS

While “Captain Phillips” is Tom Hanks’ movie, the man who steals the show from him is Barkhad Abdi. Abdi plays the pirate leader that hijacks Hanks’ ship and eventually takes him prisoner. Abdi is a Somalian refuge living in Minnesota who has never acted before. Watching the film, you would never know he’s a first-timer. He holds his own with Hanks and even upstages him at times. The fact that he’s an unknown might not earn him many votes for this nomination, but Quvenzhané Wallis was also an unknown last year when she was nominated for “Beasts of the Southern Wild” in the Best Actress category. I think Abdi will narrowly squeeze his way into his category and earn himself a trip to the Dolby Theater in March.

6. Daniel Brühl – Rush

Daniel Brühl as Niki Lauda in RUSH

If Abdi is not the fifth nominee for Best Supporting Actor, I would have to think it will go to Daniel Brühl for his role in Ron Howard’s biopic “Rush”. Brühl starred as the nemesis to Chris Hemsworth’s character. The film was pretty stale overall, but Brühl was magnificent in his performance. The film was advertised to be a film about Hemsworth’s character, but Brühl ended up with more screen time. Be aware of supporting actors who appear to be more of a lead. Some examples would be Tommy Lee Jones in his 1993 Oscar winning performance from “The Fugitive” or George Clooney winning it in 2005 for his role in “Syriana”. Both actors felt more like main characters rather than support. Brühl feels more like the main character in “Rush”. I give the edge to Abdi securing the fifth slot over Brühl at this point, but that could change the closer we get to the nomination announcement.

7. John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis

John Goodman back with the Coens in INSIDE LLEWYN
DAVIS

Here’s another film I have yet to see since it hasn’t opened in theaters yet. The Coen brothers have regularly cast John Goodman in their films. Every time Goodman is in a Coen film, he’s excellent. He’s unforgettable in their 1991 film “Barton Fink”. He’s a show stealer in their 1987 comedy “Raising Arizona”. His part is small but memorable in their 2000 film “O Brother, Where Art Thou?” and who could forget his highly quotable performance in “The Big Lebowski”? It’s safe to say that Goodman’s performance in the Coens’ latest film “Inside Llewyn Davis” will be yet another memorable performance. Goodman plays a jazz musician in the new film. That’s really all I know about it. This is a much more speculative pick than some of the others on the list. Goodman is always on his game, and the movie going public really likes him. This would be a very cool moment in his career should he come down with this nomination.

8. Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners

Jake Gyllenhaal telling an Oscar voter to remember his
performance in PRISONERS

Jake Gyllenhaal is still an actor I’m trying to figure out. He’ll go from one independent film to a major Hollywood tentpole film and back again. He’s been great in his smaller roles, but not so much in the studio pictures. While “Prisoners” is a studio film, the screenplay gave Gyllenhaal a lot to work with. The role is challenging and it’s filled with so many little nuances that he plays into so well. If I had a nominating vote with the Academy, I would single him out. He’s outstanding in this film. Unfortunately, the further away we get from this movie’s release (it came out back in September, an eternity for Oscar voters) the more its being forgotten. I hope he’s nominated, but I think he’s probably a long shot.

9. Harrison Ford – 42

Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey in 42

Speaking of long shot, Harrison Ford is another one. In this year’s Jackie Robinson biopic “42”, Ford portrayed Brooklyn Dodgers general manager Branch Rickey. Ford really disappeared into this character and he was sensational. The film itself was a little up and down, but Ford was commanding in every single scene he was in. He’s another guy I’d vote for if I had a spot at the nominating table. He’s absolutely deserving of this nomination and I hope he gets it. But if September’s release for “Prisoners” was an eternity, what does that make “42’s” April release? Oscar voters have a short term memory so this film is long forgotten. Every now and again, they’ll surprise you with some recognition for a spring movie (“The Silence of the Lambs” was a Valentine’s Day release in 1991 and went on to win the Best Picture Oscar over 12 months later), but I don’t know if they’ll remember “42” or Ford’s performance.

10. James Gandolfini – Enough Said

James Gandolfini's final performance in ENOUGH SAID

The Academy loves to pay tribute to their fallen during their famous (and almost always controversial) “In Memoriam” segment during their telecast. James Gandolfini was only 51 when he died of a heart attack this past June. His last film was the romantic comedy “Enough Said” from writer/director Nicole Holofcener. The studio is campaigning on behalf of Gandolfini for this role in the Supporting Actor category. The Oscars haven’t always been quick to give posthumous nominations. The most famous instance for an actor was Heath Ledger for “The Dark Knight” in 2008. There have been many other people over the years as well, but Ledger is the only actor to receive a nomination posthumously and win as well. Having not seen “Enough Said”, I can’t comment on his role. I’m sure he’s fantastic (as he always was). The question is will the Academy want to bestow such a high honor on him? He’s already secured a nomination for an Independent Spirit Award, so things are starting to look good.

In the second part, we’ll have a look at the possible nominees for Best Supporting Actress. Check back later this week for part 2.